Shayne Copeland started building Polymarket five years ago when he was 21. On his prediction market, now valued at about $9 billion, users put up money and bet against each other on nearly anything — elections, sports, culture and geopolitics — and those trades are turned into real‑time odds that, proponents say, reflect the “wisdom of crowds.”
How it works
– Polymarket posts binary or multi‑outcome questions (markets) — for example, “Who will win the presidential election?” or “Will Taylor Swift get married this year?” — and users buy shares in outcomes. Prices move as traders buy and sell; the price for an outcome is treated like the probability that outcome will happen.
– Markets can react instantly to events. Copeland points out that markets often answer a different question than polls do: they estimate likelihood of winning rather than share of the vote.
– The platform hosts thousands of markets; at any one time the site can have many thousands of active questions, some with multiple outcomes.
Examples and users
– In the 2024 U.S. presidential contest, Polymarket had a market for the winner; traders wagered heavily — the platform handled billions on some high‑profile questions — and its odds favored one candidate before many polls. Supporters say markets like this can surface signals as news unfolds.
– Professional traders spend full days watching markets. One large account, known on the site as “Domer,” has said he treats trading like investing: researching and holding positions. He noted he made large profits on some political calls (for example, early bets on a running mate).
– Users range from casual bettors interested in culture or sports to politically engaged traders who dig into foreign policy and geopolitics markets.
Benefits and concerns
– Advocates argue prediction markets aggregate information dispersed across many people, sometimes surfacing signals faster than polls or commentary, especially during breaking events.
– Critics raise ethical and safety concerns: markets on natural disasters, conflict outcomes, or conspiratorial predictions could create perverse incentives. For example, a market on acres burned in a wildfire drew criticism that it might encourage harmful behavior. Polymarket says it curates markets and removes or blocks those that pose unacceptable risks.
– Regulators and lawmakers have debated whether and how to treat real‑money prediction markets, especially when they touch on elections or other sensitive topics.
History and legality
– Copeland built Polymarket quickly in 2020, without full regulatory approvals. His competitor Kalshi pursued licensing; Polymarket did not. That prompted regulatory scrutiny.
– The Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigated Polymarket. Copeland cooperated and the company reached a settlement that included a roughly $1.4 million penalty and limitations that forced Polymarket to geoblock U.S. customers and move some operations offshore until it resolved compliance issues.
– Despite the restrictions, some U.S. users continued trading via VPNs. In late 2024, Copeland said the FBI executed a search warrant at his home and seized devices; no arrest was reported. With a change in administration and regulatory posture, investigations eased. Polymarket later acquired a licensed, compliant trading platform and moved to serve U.S. customers openly.
Business and growth
– Polymarket has attracted large investors and big bets. Copeland said the company’s post‑money valuation was about $9 billion, making him a paper billionaire. The business has drawn funding from parties including a fund associated with Donald Trump Jr. (1789 Capital) and, notably, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange announced a multi‑billion‑dollar investment deal that would integrate Polymarket’s data with traditional markets.
– Polymarket’s main product — its market odds and data — is currently given away free on the site, and trading fees are not charged in the same way as exchanges, so the company has yet to report profit on that product. Copeland has described growth goals that aim far beyond current user counts; he has said tens of millions view odds and that hundreds of thousands actively trade, with an ambition to reach many more.
– Large individual traders move markets. Copeland and reporters noted accounts that have traded hundreds of millions of dollars in total and made multi‑million‑dollar returns in a year. Some traders compare their approach to investing; others liken the experience to professional poker — high‑stakes, research intensive and fast‑paced.
Examples of market performance
– Polymarket markets have tracked events such as elections around the world, the likelihood of political candidates dropping out, and geopolitical outcomes. In some high‑profile races and events, Polymarket’s probabilities differed from polls and were watched for signs of momentum or breaking developments.
– Markets can react during debates, announcements or other live events, with odds moving rapidly as traders respond to new information.
Ethics, moderation and inside information
– Polymarket maintains rules about which markets are allowed and has removed or blocked markets judged to pose public safety or ethical risks. Still, the possibility that financial incentives could encourage wrongdoing — for example to influence a market outcome tied to real‑world harm — remains a concern for critics and ethicists.
– Copeland has acknowledged the risk of “edge” traders bringing specialized knowledge and said the company works on curation and ethics to limit misuse while preserving the information value that prediction markets can offer.
Regulatory and political context
– Early regulatory friction forced Polymarket to restrict U.S. activity; the settlement with the CFTC required geoblocking and fines. Later developments — changes in administration and regulatory stance — opened paths for more formal licensing and partnership approaches.
– Copeland assembled an advisory board that included figures with political ties; he has defended such choices as necessary for navigating policy and regulatory engagement as Polymarket grows and seeks compliance.
Products and reach
– Markets cover diverse categories — politics, sports, culture, macroeconomics and finance — and include questions both trivial and consequential. Copeland and supporters emphasize information value: markets create incentives for people to research topics deeply, which can improve public understanding.
– Polymarket publishes live data and has sought to monetize through partnerships, data licensing and broader integration with financial markets, though consumer trading remains a central feature.
Outlook
– Copeland has framed Polymarket as a tool to distill dispersed opinions into probabilities and has ambitious growth goals for users and market coverage. The company has attracted mainstream investors and announced large funding and partnership deals that aim to position its data alongside traditional market signals.
– At the same time, Polymarket faces ongoing questions about regulation, ethics, the potential for harm in some markets, and how to operate sustainably and profitably while maintaining accuracy and trust in the markets it hosts.
