President Trump told Americans in a televised address that his administration is “crushing” inflation and that “prices are coming down tremendously.” Recent economic data and expert commentary paint a more mixed picture.
Overall inflation trends
– Consumer prices have generally edged higher during Mr. Trump’s first year back in the White House. The most recent official data available (September CPI) showed inflation at a 3% annual rate. Because of a recent government shutdown, newer federal CPI releases were delayed.
– Inflation hit a low of 2.3% in April 2025 but climbed steadily thereafter and, by September, returned to the same rate recorded in January when Mr. Trump was inaugurated.
– Some Wall Street analysts, including Mark Vickery of Zacks Investment Research, estimated the CPI rose at roughly a 3.3% annual rate in November.
Role of tariffs and Fed view
– Economists and Federal Reserve officials have pointed to the administration’s new tariffs on imports as a contributor to the recent pickup in goods inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs have boosted goods prices and that this effect could be a one-time increase expected to fade over the coming year.
– The Fed and many economists expect any further pickup to be temporary and for inflation to ease in 2026; the Fed projects inflation around 2.4% next year, down from roughly 2.9% in 2025.
Longer-term context and consumer experience
– Inflation has fallen substantially from a near-40-year peak of about 9% in June 2022. But a lower inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly, not that prices are falling.
– Many consumers focus on out-of-pocket spending rather than the abstract inflation rate. By that measure, Americans are still paying more for everyday basics than a year ago and far more than before the pandemic.
Food
– Grocery prices were 2.7% higher in September year over year. Cumulatively, grocery bills have increased about 49% since 2020, according to CPI-based comparisons.
– Some items have surged much faster than headline inflation; for example, beef steaks rose nearly 17% from the prior year in recent CPI data.
– The administration sought to curb some grocery price pressures by exempting items such as beef, coffee and bananas from new country-specific tariffs.
Housing
– Housing costs remain a major affordability problem. Bankrate reported that more than 75% of U.S. homes are unaffordable for the typical household.
– A prospective buyer now needs about $131,400 in annual income to afford a typical U.S. home, nearly double the roughly $65,000 figure from five years earlier (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta data).
– Surveys show most Americans view housing as more unaffordable now than in prior years.
Energy and utilities
– Gasoline is one area where consumers have seen relief: gasoline prices were down 0.5% in September year over year, and average pump prices dropped below $3 per gallon earlier in the month in some reports. Lower crude prices, stronger refinery output and weaker seasonal demand helped push gasoline lower.
– Despite lower pump prices, other energy costs have risen. Residential electricity prices increased more than 10% over the first eight months of 2025 (National Energy Assistance Directors Association). Over the trailing 12 months, power costs rose about 6%.
– Utility bill delinquency has risen: by June 2025 nearly one in 20 households was seriously behind on utility payments, and average overdue balances climbed from $597 to $789 over three years, a 32% increase (The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers).
Politics and statements
– Mr. Trump made the remarks in Mount Pocono, Pa., as his administration promotes its economic agenda ahead of next year’s midterms. He said, “I have no higher priority than making America affordable.”
– White House spokesman Kush Desai credited the administration with rapidly cooling inflation to a “2.5% annualized rate” and said supply-side policies will keep inflation falling and real wages rising.
– Not all Republicans agree on whether affordability is solved. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene told CBS News she does not view affordability as a “hoax” and said “everyone’s bills have either stayed the same or gone up.”
What to expect
– While some data points (like falling gas prices) give consumers relief, other costs — groceries, housing and utilities in particular — remain elevated compared with recent years.
– Fed officials and many economists expect tariff-driven price effects to be temporary and headline inflation to decline in 2026, but near-term data through late 2025 indicate inflation has not uniformly “come down tremendously” across household expenses.