U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have sharply reduced vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor that carries a large share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Since hostilities began, transits have fallen dramatically, raising concerns that constrained flows could push fuel prices higher.
The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center has reported attacks on multiple ships in and around the strait and warned of growing electronic interference with navigation systems. Shipping firms have reacted: major carriers including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced suspensions of shipments through the passage. Analysts also warn that debris from intercepted missiles and shrapnel can damage regional infrastructure, adding to the risk of accidental or indirect disruption.
Where is the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz sits off Iran’s southern coast, linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At roughly 100 miles long and about 21 miles wide at its narrowest, it normally handles about one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. Crude from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran flows through the channel, making it a strategic choke point for international energy supplies.
Current impact and market risks
Ship movements have effectively stalled as tanker operators avoid the route amid ongoing drone and missile activity and threats from Iran. Insurance for voyages through the strait has become scarce or very costly, further discouraging transits. “It is de facto closed,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, describing the reluctance of owners to send ships through the area.
How long the stoppage lasts is the central uncertainty. Jim Burkhard of S&P Global warned that even a week-long reduction in tanker traffic would be unprecedented; a longer disruption could have dramatic effects on oil markets, forcing higher prices, supply rationing and broader financial-market consequences.
How severe could price effects be?
Analysts say Iran lacks the naval capacity to sustain a complete, long-term closure without risking its own exports and economy. It could harass ships or lay mines, but prolonging such measures would be difficult. Still, prolonged disruption could push oil into triple-digit territory per barrel and weigh on the global economy, experts say. Offsetting factors include strong U.S. oil production, built-up reserves and relatively soft global demand, which could limit price spikes if the interruption is short-lived, according to Benny Wong of PitchBook.
Are there alternatives?
Some crude can be rerouted by pipeline — for example, Saudi Arabia’s East-West “Petroline” to Red Sea ports or the Abu Dhabi pipeline to the Gulf of Oman — but these carry only a fraction of the volume that normally transits the strait. There is no practical replacement capable of matching the strait’s full throughput.
The bottom line: market watchers say the duration and intensity of the disruptions will determine how sharply prices and supplies are affected. For now, widespread avoidance of the strait has tightened an already sensitive link in global energy transport.