We’re more than two weeks into the conflict with Iran and its asymmetric fallout: US and Israeli air strikes continue to strike Iranian infrastructure with little apparent Iranian conventional resistance, but Iran and its proxies are still able to harass regional shipping and allies. President Trump has urged other nations to escort commercial tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to reopen that narrow chokepoint, which handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG. So far, few countries have volunteered; most remain on the sidelines.
From the Strait of Hormuz: Imtiaz Tyab reported from Ras Al Khaimah on how narrow and vulnerable the strait is. Large tankers carrying hundreds of millions of dollars of crude sit off a choke point a few miles wide; Iran can threaten them with mines, rockets, drones and small-boat attacks. Tehran appears to be exploiting the strait asymmetrically to inflict economic pain and raise the political cost of continuing strikes against its infrastructure. Tyab noted an attack earlier in the day on the Shah oil field in Abu Dhabi, plus rocket fire toward the US embassy in Baghdad, underlining that while the US and Israel “own the skies,” Iranian and proxy forces can still destabilize neighboring states and global energy flows.
Strategic analysis: Former CIA counterterrorism official Joe Zacks described the conflict as one Iran is pursuing to survive in the face of overwhelming conventional losses. Tehran’s strategic sweet spots are the Strait of Hormuz and harassment of Gulf Cooperation Council neighbors; both aim to pressure the US and Israel into pausing. Zacks warned that choking the strait would progressively damage global markets and fertilizer supply, and he flagged the political problem that many US allies have not committed to escorting tankers through the strait—something that pleases Tehran.
White House posture: Ed O’Keefe summarized Washington developments. The White House asked Europe and Asia to join escorts in the strait; several allies pushed back, saying this is not a NATO obligation and that the US “broke it” and should not expect others to fix it. President Trump has suggested possible future strikes on Iranian export infrastructure such as Kharg Island but has not ordered such actions. The conflict’s asymmetric damage extends to ships and energy facilities in the region.
UAE and Baghdad incidents: A drone attack caused a fire at the Shah oil field in Abu Dhabi, one of the world’s largest, with no reported casualties but major implications for global energy security. Rockets reportedly were fired toward the US embassy in Baghdad. These events underscore how Iran and proxies can impose costs short of direct conventional confrontation.
White House chief of staff: Susie Wiles, the first female White House chief of staff, announced an early-stage breast cancer diagnosis and intends to continue working during treatment. Dr. Celine Gounder emphasized that early-stage breast cancer (stage II or lower) is often treatable and that treatment and side effects vary by tumor biology—surgery, radiation, chemo, hormone therapy or immunotherapy are possible. She also stressed the diagnosis raises public awareness about screening and workplace support for colleagues undergoing cancer care.
Partial DHS shutdown: A partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security has left about 61,000 TSA workers unpaid. Airlines’ CEOs urged Congress to fund the affected federal workers. On Capitol Hill, informal encounters show partisan gridlock: a GOP senator declined a Democratic congressman’s plea to fund TSA alone. Republicans say they will not cede leverage and that they already secured funding for ICE and CBP; Democrats are resisting broader concessions.
FBI and purges: David Sundberg, the fired former head of the FBI Washington Field Office who led the January 6 investigation, warned that the FBI’s capabilities and institutional expertise have been depleted by political firings. He said agents and analysts were removed without due process, often because they were assigned to investigations the current leadership disliked—especially probes touching the president. Sundberg described morale as worse, with remaining agents anxious about assignments and political interference. He cautioned that losses of counterintelligence expertise pose national security risks.
ProPublica on credit bureaus: ProPublica’s Joel Jacobs reported that credit bureaus have systematically dialed back relief for consumer disputes. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) historically forwarded complaints and required responses; in 2024 large bureaus provided relief in a meaningful share of cases. But after regulatory enforcement efforts stalled post-administration change, Experian and TransUnion reduced relief rates significantly. Equifax had faced enforcement and did not scale back at the same rate. Jacobs said bureaus have pushed consumers toward opaque internal dispute processes that yield fewer fixes.
Politics and primaries: Illinois primaries will test outside spending and endorsements. Gov. J.B. Pritzker backed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in a Senate primary, injecting millions into outside groups to boost her after she lagged in fundraising and polls against Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi. Crypto and AI super PACs poured money behind opponents; Democrats worry about outside groups’ influence in party primaries. The show also flagged the Texas primary interest and the national consequences of intraparty spending.
Republican politics and the war: Vice President JD Vance said he broadly supports keeping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and prays for success and troop safety, but his comments appeared to try to split the difference between backing the president’s approach and reflecting doubts among some MAGA voters about a prolonged conflict. Some right-wing figures publicly hinted that elements in the administration were uneasy about extended engagement.
Culture and history: Bob Crawford, bassist for the Avett Brothers, discussed his book on John Quincy Adams, emphasizing Adams’s long public service arc—president for one term, then 18 years in the House—his anti-slavery petition work, and his role connecting early-Republic revolutionaries through the antebellum period.
What to watch: The immediate priorities remain: whether allies join tanker escorts, whether attacks on Gulf export infrastructure escalate, the domestic political consequences of the conflict, and the federal workforce and institutional impacts of political decisions in Washington.