A significant storm will move through the Middle East this week, where major combat operations are taking place, with impacts expected from Israel to Qatar to Iran. While storms occasionally move through the region, this system is unusually strong, with chances for widespread flooding rains, haboobs (dust storms) and severe weather, including brief tornadoes.
Rain and thunderstorms will enter Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday, initially fairly scattered. By Thursday the storm will organize and spread across the region, with significant impacts from Syria south into the Arabian Peninsula. The peak will affect parts of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Iran on Thursday and continue into Friday.
Main hazards include severe thunderstorms with a risk of tornadoes, hail and damaging winds over 60 mph. The storms will also bring flash flooding — possibly over 1 inch of rain in some locations — which could cause urban flooding in cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Dubai’s annual average rainfall is about 3.12 inches, so close to an inch in a single event would be notable. Higher localized totals are possible, bringing isolated significant impacts.
Haboobs could sweep across the Arabian desert, reducing visibility and producing gusty winds. Mountainous areas of Iran may see some snow. The storm is expected to clear the region by Saturday.
Military strikes have been occurring in Iran and surrounding regions since Feb. 28, including large joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on military and government sites and retaliatory strikes by Iran.