Chinese President Xi Jinping has largely stayed silent as the U.S. and Israel confront Iran, even after the White House delayed an expected trip by President Donald Trump. Experts tell ABC News that Beijing’s restraint and the wider crisis are improving China’s strategic position ahead of a likely meeting between Xi and Trump in May.
Jon Czin, a Brookings Institution fellow and former director for China at the National Security Council, said the conflict is pulling U.S. military assets away from the Indo-Pacific and occupying Washington’s attention. “What Beijing really wants is time and space to focus on strengthening themselves — and the fact that the U.S. is preoccupied with the Middle East gives them that,” he said, adding that Chinese leadership is relieved not to be in the “eye of Sauron” as U.S. focus shifts.
Beijing has so far declined to intervene even after Trump publicly urged China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts note China faces limited upside from engagement: some Chinese ships have still transited the strait despite disruptions, Beijing has built strategic oil reserves and has made large investments in green energy that cushion its exposure.
Beyond short-term restraint, China is using the conflict as an intelligence and lessons-learned opportunity. Czin said Beijing is closely studying how the U.S. military operates in a live conflict — material that can inform Taiwan-related planning and war-gaming, building on insights gathered from the Ukraine war.
Experts also say Beijing entered 2026 believing it had more leverage over the U.S. than Washington appreciated. Chinese officials have pointed to U.S. economic frailties, including labor-market weakness and affordability issues, as factors that would reduce Trump’s appetite for further escalation. Beijing has also pressed its advantages on critical minerals, imposing export controls on rare earths shortly before Trump’s last meeting with Xi — a move that drew no immediate retribution from Washington.
Jude Blanchette, Tang Chair in China Research and director of the China Research Center at RAND, said China’s rare-earth leverage has changed the dynamic since the first Trump administration. The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s broad emergency tariffs — a key pressure tool — has further limited U.S. options ahead of the summit.
The in-person summit originally scheduled for March 31–April 2 was postponed by about six weeks because of the Iran war. Ahead of the meeting, analysts expect Xi to seek an extension of the trade truce, rollbacks or easing of export controls on advanced technologies including AI-capable semiconductors, and reduced scrutiny of Chinese investment in the U.S.
Czin argued, however, that Beijing’s primary aim is simpler: exit the summit without conceding substantive ground, secure more time, and continue strengthening its position. “If they’re able to get off the hook by just having a very high-profile ceremonial visit,” he said, “that’s a win for Beijing.”