April 23, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
President Donald Trump has pushed for a quick end to the war with Iran — stepping up bombing raids, threatening to destroy infrastructure, attempting diplomacy and ordering a naval blockade — but Tehran appears in no hurry to strike a deal.
Western diplomats and intelligence-informed officials say that despite the assassinations of Iranian leaders and damage to military sites, Iran’s regime has politically benefited from the attacks and is, improbably, more stable and somewhat harder-line than before the war. Mass anti-government protests that roiled the country before the conflict have receded, and Iran’s moderate or reformist faction has been marginalized, officials said, because heavy U.S. bombing and Trump’s ultimatums undermined arguments that accommodation with Washington would yield benefits.
In the U.S., political costs are mounting as the midterm elections near, a crucial meeting between Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping approaches, and gas prices rise. New polling shows majorities disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war. “The Iranians don’t seem to be in a rush to negotiate,” one Western official with knowledge of intelligence assessments told NBC News. The president denied feeling time pressure, posting on Truth Social that he is “possibly the least pressured person ever to be in this position” and that “I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t — The clock is ticking!”
Trump has repeatedly predicted the war would be short, calling it a “little excursion” expected to end about five weeks after it began and later saying the U.S. was ahead of schedule. He told reporters he didn’t want to rush a resolution, noting how long other U.S. wars lasted and saying he wanted “to get a great deal.”
As the conflict drags on, voter discontent has grown. An NBC News Decision Desk poll of registered voters found two-thirds disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war. A Fox News poll showed Democrats gaining on inflation and the economy. Analysts disagree on whether time favors Iran in the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil and gas. Some critics of Trump support the U.S. blockade; others warn that prolonged pressure may not force Tehran to yield.
Iranian leaders believe the U.S. and American public lack the appetite for a protracted war and will back off as costs rise, said Daniel Byman of Georgetown University. “For the Iranian regime, the conflict is existential, while for most Americans, it is best over and forgotten,” he wrote, arguing that this divergence encourages Iranian actors to prolong confrontation in hopes Washington will seek an exit. Byman added that bluffing risks convincing Tehran that U.S. red lines are not real.
Trump has extended deadlines to reach a deal five times, each coupled with stern threats. White House officials have debated whether to set another public deadline only to miss it. Weeks ago Trump vowed to “obliterate” power plants if Iran did not “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz, then paused strikes amid reported diplomatic progress, later pushing back the timeline multiple times. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said only the president can set the next deadline.
Talks have faltered. Vice President JD Vance prepared to travel to Pakistan for a second round of negotiations after an initial session failed, but the trip was postponed. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump adviser Jared Kushner were summoned to the White House to discuss next steps before returning to Florida when a decision was made not to send a negotiating team to Islamabad immediately.
Trump is betting that a U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s ports will force Tehran to concede and reopen the strait. U.S. officials and blockade proponents argue that constraining Iran’s oil exports will eventually trigger hyperinflation and financial crisis, forcing a deal. Since the blockade began, U.S. forces have boarded at least two Iran-associated ships claimed to be carrying oil and turned away 33 vessels approaching the strait.
The blockade could change Iran’s calculus over time, since Iran needs oil revenue. But Western officials say Iran hopes to charge transit fees for ships, generating revenue while the blockade persists. Iran also maintains its own leverage: it continues to control access through the Strait of Hormuz and has attacked ships, further disrupting shipments of oil, fertilizer and other goods and triggering global economic shocks.
Iran believes it can hold out. Officials say Tehran has years of experience absorbing sanctions and economic pain, can sell oil from storage held offshore near Malaysia and China, export gas by pipeline, and print money to cushion the blow. Before U.S. and Israeli military operations in late February, Tehran had shown greater willingness to compromise, including concessions on its nuclear program that had been a key source of leverage. Now, with effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has found a new global advantage at far lower cost than earlier concessions, a Western diplomat said, leaving little reason for Tehran to capitulate.
Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote that Tehran would not yield to Washington’s demands, saying a complete ceasefire “only makes sense if it is not violated by the maritime blockade and the hostage-taking of the world’s economy” and if “warmongering across all fronts is halted.” He said reopening the strait is impossible under what he called a flagrant breach of ceasefire, and claimed the U.S. and Israel “did not achieve their goals through military aggression, nor will they through bullying.”
Despite repeated U.S. and Israeli bombing, analysts say Iran retains missiles, drones and mines sufficient to maintain control of the strait. Beyond its military assets, the regime has found it does not take much to drive up insurance costs for shipping companies and discourage commercial traffic, amplifying the blockade’s impact without necessarily sustaining continuous large-scale attacks.
As the standoff continues, Trump is wagering that pressure at sea will force Tehran back to the table. Iran, judging the conflict existential and betting on U.S. political fatigue, appears willing to wait and test how long the United States will sustain its campaign and its blockade.