President Donald Trump has claimed Iran is struggling to identify its leader and that hardliners and moderates are infighting, using those divisions to explain stalled negotiations. ABC News, however, spoke with multiple security and policy sources and a former head of the Iran branch in Israel’s Research and Analysis Division who describe a different reality.
Their view: decision-making in Iran is no longer centralized solely around the supreme leader as it was before the war, and there is not a wide gap between factions at the core of the regime. A regional policy source with intelligence knowledge said there may be differences in emphasis and approach, “but there is no clear evidence of fractures at the level of core decision-making.”
Observers warn Iran has become increasingly militarized and tightly controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), founded in 1979 as the revolution’s protector. Unlike the prewar era, decision-making is now more decentralized. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the supreme leader role after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28. Mojtaba is reportedly in hiding and difficult to reach, which slows and complicates decisions.
Multiple security sources outline a politburo-style leadership dominated by IRGC figures, including:
– Mojtaba Khamenei, who fought with the IRGC in the Iran–Iraq War.
– Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, IRGC commander in chief.
– Gen. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, head of the Supreme National Security Council and former IRGC deputy commander.
– Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, military adviser to Mojtaba and former IRGC commander.
– Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, parliament speaker, chief negotiator and former IRGC commander.
There is ongoing speculation about Mojtaba’s health after he was badly injured in the bombing that began the war. Most sources say he is conscious and involved in decisions to some degree. One senior security official believes he is still making decisions, while another says he remains hidden and not in direct contact with many leaders; messages are passed through a system but he avoids phone calls and meetings. “You can’t run a country like that….They’re in disarray, but they’re still in control over the country. I wouldn’t say they’ve lost control,” a source said.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Mojtaba was badly wounded and disfigured. The New York Times reported Mojtaba is recovering from severe injuries, including burns to his face and lips that make speech difficult—possibly explaining his absence from public view.
For U.S. and Israeli leaders, the bigger issue than who is deciding policy is Iran’s limited willingness to compromise. An Israeli official praised military gains, saying Iran is “weaker than it’s ever been,” but acknowledged more remains to be done, either by negotiation—about which he was skeptical—or “other means.” He denied that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed the U.S. toward regime change.
The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been central to pressure on Iran; Trump seeks to use economic measures to extract concessions. The Israeli official argued the blockade is effective and reduces any reason to offer concessions, saying many underestimated Trump’s resolve.
Danny Citrinowicz, former head of Israel’s RAD Iran branch and now a senior researcher on Iran, says the net effect has been a militarized state under IRGC control. He criticized expectations that a military campaign or blockade would produce a decisive “silver bullet,” calling such hopes reactive and unrealistic. He also said Trump’s online posts amount to little beyond signaling desperation to Iranian observers. Aside from degrading some offensive capabilities, Citrinowicz believes the war has not achieved its main objectives.
Iran retains significant military capacities. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency reported Iran still possesses thousands of missiles and attack drones; Israeli assessments concur. Battle damage to missile launchers is estimated at about 60 percent, though some systems can be repaired. Israeli officials say intelligence suggests Iran still holds a ballistic missile arsenal in the thousands. The Israel Defense Forces reported over 550 long-range missiles were launched by Iran at Israel from Feb. 28 to the ceasefire in early April. At the war’s outset, the IDF estimated roughly 2,500 ballistic missiles, a conservative figure that excluded shorter-range systems.
On nuclear capabilities, Citrinowicz warned that while Iran lacks an industrialized weapons program, it possesses substantial enriched material—reported at roughly 20 to 60 percent purity—that could be further enriched toward weapons-grade (around 90 percent) in a matter of weeks. Analysts and an intelligence source caution Iran retains the ability to cascade centrifuges and increase enrichment, meaning removing about 1,000 pounds of highly enriched material discussed in talks would not eliminate the potential for nuclear capability. The IAEA has said the precise status of Iran’s program is uncertain and, as of February, could not verify inventories of centrifuges and related equipment.
Israel’s public posture is uncompromising: Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel is prepared to resume the war against Iran and is “waiting for the green light from the U.S. first and foremost to complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty.” Achieving such aims, however, has so far proved elusive.