Modesto, Calif. — Sixth grade teacher Nancy Barajas dims the lights, turns on a disco ball and plays upbeat music before big tests. Her students dance together for a “pre-celebration,” then take their exams. In Modesto’s elementary schools, that upbeat ritual accompanies a broader push that has produced steady gains in both reading and math over recent years.
Across the country, however, the picture is bleaker. A new national Education Scorecard — produced by scholars at Harvard, Stanford and Dartmouth who analyzed state test results for grades 3–8 in more than 5,000 districts across 38 states — finds that U.S. reading achievement remains far below pre-pandemic levels and that few states have posted meaningful reading growth from 2022 to 2025. Only five states and the District of Columbia showed significant reading gains in that period. Nationally, students are nearly half a grade level behind where they were before the pandemic; math is only slightly better.
Researchers and educators say the reading decline predates COVID-19. National Assessment of Educational Progress data show downward trends for fourth graders since about 2015 and for eighth graders since 2013. “The pandemic was the mudslide that had followed seven years of steady erosion in achievement,” said Thomas Kane, a Harvard professor involved in the Scorecard project. He and other researchers characterize the last decade as a “learning recession,” pointing to factors such as reduced test-based accountability and the rise of social media and smartphones, which they argue have coincided with declines in kids’ recreational reading.
Yet the Scorecard also identifies pockets of recovery. In more than 400 districts, including Modesto, growth in reading or math outpaced demographically similar districts in the same state. Almost every state in the analysis saw math improvements from 2022 to 2025, and student absenteeism declined in most states.
States and districts that are improving reading largely share two strategies: an embrace of phonics-based approaches often described as the “science of reading,” and expanded screening and targeted support for struggling readers. Several states that posted reading gains — including Louisiana, Maryland, Tennessee, Kentucky and Indiana — have ordered schools to adopt phonics-centered instruction, required screenings for learning disabilities like dyslexia, and funded coaching for teachers.
But policymakers caution that changing curriculum alone is not a guarantee. Some states that altered reading policies, such as Florida, Arizona and Nebraska, still saw scores fall. Success appears linked not just to policy changes but to sustained training, coaching, supports for students who need extra help, and implementation fidelity.
Modesto’s reforms unfolded in stages. The district overhauled reading instruction during the pandemic and revamped math earlier, created a unit to support students still learning English, and increased professional development for teachers. Educators were paid $5,000 each to complete LETRS (Language Essentials for Teachers of Reading and Spelling), a comprehensive program based on the science of reading. Modesto’s recent test-score improvements translate roughly to an extra 18 weeks of learning in math and 13 weeks in reading, though overall proficiency remains well below grade level.
Detroit provides another example of concerted effort yielding progress. After years of poor conditions and low performance led to a 2016 lawsuit claiming students were denied the “right to read,” the district reached a settlement worth more than $94 million. That money helped rebuild systems, expand supports and improve attendance practices. At Munger Elementary-Middle School, additional educators provide small-group instruction and an attendance agent calls families and sometimes visits homes to encourage daily attendance. “It allows us to be better educators to see kids consistently in the seat instead of once or twice a week,” said first grade teacher Samantha Ciaffone, noting daily absences have fallen from seven or eight students to one or two.
The South has been notable as an early adopter of research-based reforms. Over the past decade several Southern states moved quickly to change reading instruction and invest in teacher training and coaching. Louisiana and Alabama stand out: Louisiana was the only state to exceed its pre-pandemic reading average in 2025 and, along with Alabama, was among the few with math scores above pre-pandemic levels. In Louisiana, 87% of traditional public school students attended a district where scores were higher than in 2019. Alabama’s reading gains followed a law requiring phonics-based instruction; lawmakers later modeled math reforms on that approach with a 2022 Numeracy Act that standardized instruction and mandated interventions.
Even where gains are visible, many students remain below proficiency. Schools such as Oxmoor Valley Elementary in Birmingham have steadily improved after once being labeled “failing,” but most students still test below proficient in both reading and math. Birmingham Superintendent Mark Sullivan stressed that supports must be paired with high expectations.
Scholars point out that widespread improvement is possible because the country has done it before. From the 1990s through the mid-2010s the U.S. saw decades of rising test scores and higher graduation rates alongside shrinking racial gaps. “We made enormous progress as a country in terms of educational success from over a 30-year period,” said Stanford professor Sean Reardon. “Test scores went up dramatically. And so I think that says, as a country, we can improve education and educational opportunity.”
In classrooms where gains are emerging, routines focus on fluency and frequent practice. At Fairview Elementary in Modesto, Barajas’s class reads together for one minute to build speed, then pairs up to read aloud, with English learners matched with native speakers and every child getting a turn. “Eventually, you get through the word like it’s water,” one boy said. “You just say it smooth.”
Researchers and state leaders emphasize that local progress needs to be scaled. The Scorecard authors say the recovery has begun in pockets, but spreading the effective practices—structured phonics instruction, early screening, teacher coaching, and consistent student attendance—will determine whether the U.S. can reverse the broader reading recession.