Expect a rough summer for flying. Rising fares, widespread delays and thousands of cancellations mean many passengers could see disrupted plans, higher costs and longer waits.
The numbers behind the trouble
– On-time arrivals hit their worst level since 2014 in 2025. One in 12 flights arrived at least an hour late, and airlines canceled more than 100,000 flights, according to a U.S. PIRG Education Fund report based on Department of Transportation data.
– Carriers with the most cancellations: American, Frontier and JetBlue. Those with the fewest: Allegiant, Hawaiian and Southwest.
– Best on-time performance: Hawaiian, Delta and Southwest. Worst on-time performance: Frontier, JetBlue and American.
Why travel is more fragile this year
– Staffing and infrastructure strains: A shortage of air traffic controllers, worsened by recent government shutdowns, has reduced system resilience. Some busy airports, like Chicago O’Hare, have imposed mandated flight cuts to ease operational strain.
– Weather and over-scheduling: Weather remains a leading cause of disruption, and delays often cascade when airlines schedule more flights than airports can reliably handle.
– Carry-on crowding: Fewer checked bags in 2025 means more carry-ons in overhead bins; cramming extra luggage aboard can delay boarding and departure.
– Higher fuel costs and route cuts: Rising jet fuel prices—pushed higher in part by geopolitical events—are driving airlines to raise fares and drop less profitable, fuel-inefficient routes. Travel industry executives describe the system as “unusually fragile,” noting fuel can be roughly 30% of a flight’s operating cost.
– Higher passenger volumes: Airlines expect a busy summer. United, for example, projects about 53 million customers from June through August, roughly 3 million more than last year; major events like the World Cup are adding demand.
What passengers should know and do
– Know your rights: If your flight is canceled, federal rules give you the right to a refund if you choose not to travel or be rebooked. Keep documentation and ask the airline directly for the refund process.
– Choose reliability over the cheapest fare when it matters: Nonstop itineraries and carriers with stronger on-time records (Hawaiian, Delta, Southwest, and others with low cancellation rates) reduce the chance of disruptions. Budget fares that require connections are cheaper but more vulnerable to being derailed.
– Fly early: Flights that depart between about 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. are statistically more likely to arrive on time—roughly 18% better on-time performance—because they’re less exposed to earlier delays and later-day weather buildup.
– Travel light when possible: Minimizing checked bags reduces the chance of baggage-related delays and helps boarding move faster. If you must check a bag, prepay and tag it early.
– Be realistic about savings vs. peace of mind: Decide whether saving money on a ticket is worth the potential stress of rebooking, extra nights, or higher last-minute fares if your plans change.
– Monitor flights and communications: Sign up for airline alerts, check the status before you leave for the airport, and be prepared to reroute or accept earlier/later flights if notified.
– Consider refundable fares or travel protection: If your schedule is tight, a refundable ticket or travel insurance that covers cancellations or missed connections can be worth the extra cost.
– Consider alternative airports or carriers: If your origin or destination has mandated flight cuts or is known for high delays, look at nearby airports or carriers with better operational performance.
A few caveats
– Improvements in system averages are possible: Industry changes such as Spirit Airlines’ exit from some markets could modestly improve overall on-time averages if poorly performing operations are reduced. But multiple factors—high passenger volumes, potential extreme weather, and fuel-driven route pruning—mean some travelers should expect this summer to be as bad or worse than last year.
Bottom line
Plan for delays and possible cancellations. If arrival time is critical, pay more for nonstop service on airlines with stronger reliability, book early-morning flights, travel lighter when you can, and understand your refund and rebooking rights. Those steps won’t eliminate disruptions, but they’ll reduce the odds that disruptions derail your trip.