Sen. Bill Cassidy’s political future was on the line Saturday as Louisiana voters weighed in for the first time since he voted to convict Donald Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial. The two-term Republican is defending his seat against Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming, both of whom have presented themselves as more closely aligned with Trump. If no candidate wins a majority Saturday, the top two will advance to a June 27 runoff.
Cassidy has acknowledged the impeachment vote could hurt him, but he has emphasized his ability to work with the president and his record of passing legislation that became law. He has also drawn contrasts with his challengers and secured backing from Senate GOP leadership. Senate Majority Leader John Thune described Cassidy as “a terrific senator for Louisiana” and said leadership’s role is to support incumbents while leaving the final decision to voters.
On the eve of the primary, Trump posted on Truth Social endorsing Letlow, praising her as a “total winner” and touting her record for Louisiana. The endorsement stopped short of the sharper attacks Trump had leveled at Cassidy in previous weeks.
The group of Republicans who opposed Trump after the Jan. 6 attack was never large, and that cohort has become smaller in Congress. Of the House Republicans who voted to impeach and the seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump, only three later won re-election — and those victories came in all-party primary environments that let candidates reach beyond the traditional GOP electorate.
In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry, who supports Letlow, moved to change the state’s primary rules from a jungle, all-party system to more conventional party primaries ahead of the Senate contest. He also delayed the state’s House primaries to allow lawmakers time to redraw districts after a Supreme Court ruling struck down the existing maps. The Senate primary, however, remained on schedule. Cassidy has accused Landry of making his path to re-election more difficult.
Cassidy and his campaign say the switch to a closed, party primary has confused and blocked unaffiliated voters who wanted to support him. He told reporters callers reported being unable to cast ballots for him. Cassidy campaign manager Kate Larkin accused the governor of intentionally complicating the process to favor Letlow.
Beyond the impeachment vote, Cassidy’s positions have occasionally put him at odds with factions aligned with Trump. He has clashed publicly with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over vaccine skepticism even though Cassidy voted to confirm Kennedy for the post. Earlier this month, Trump blamed Cassidy for obstructing his nominee for surgeon general, Casey Means, saying opposition led to Means being replaced; Cassidy said Means lacked the votes for confirmation.
Those disagreements have attracted opposition from Kennedy’s allied political effort, MAHA PAC, which has spent heavily to back Letlow. Outside spending in the race has been substantial: Ad-tracking firm AdImpact reports roughly $21.8 million in pro-Cassidy ads, $9.8 million for Letlow and about $1.5 million for Fleming, with total spending above $30 million.
Letlow has embraced elements of the MAHA message in the campaign’s closing weeks. Cassidy has counterattacked by highlighting Letlow’s past stock trades and her prior work supporting diversity, equity and inclusion programs at the University of Louisiana.
Cassidy has repeatedly called the contest “Letlow’s to lose,” while expressing confidence he can prevail — either outright Saturday or in a possible runoff. He has said if Letlow fails to advance, he expects to face Fleming and “accomplish our mission.”
Fleming, who has remained in the race despite Trump’s endorsement of Letlow, says he was offered a federal job to drop out, an offer he declined. He has emphasized grassroots organizing, criticized the state’s carbon-capture policies, and positioned himself as the race’s only “true conservative.”
Though Trump intervened, many prominent Republicans have largely stayed neutral. House Speaker Mike Johnson — a Louisiana Republican who has ties to all three candidates — said he is close to each of them and described his situation as awkward, given personal relationships with Letlow, Fleming and Cassidy.