Updated April 9, 2026
A last-minute ceasefire between the United States and Iran has calmed immediate market fears, but analysts say drivers should not expect a swift or dramatic drop in pump prices.
Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, says retail gasoline could begin to ease as soon as this weekend, though the initial decline may be only a few cents per gallon. If the truce holds, De Haan adds, there is room for the national average to slip back under the $4 per gallon mark, but that move would likely take a couple of weeks and is contingent on no new disruptions.
Fuel remains elevated. According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline rose to $4.16 on Wednesday, up from $2.98 before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, and about 91 cents higher than a year ago. Some states are still seeing prices above $5 per gallon, while diesel averages $5.67.
Global crude fell below $95 a barrel on Wednesday, down from the peaks reached during the confrontation but still well above the roughly $65 to $75 range seen before the crisis. Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, says a durable ceasefire should at minimum stabilize prices and could push them lower, but much depends on how safe traders perceive passage through the Strait of Hormuz to be.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping chokepoint, typically handling about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports. Reporting has been mixed: Iranian state outlets say Tehran has suspended tanker transits through the strait and is considering withdrawing from the recent arrangement with Washington in response to Israeli actions in Lebanon. The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said the president is aware of those reports and called them false.
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi projects that if oil holds near $90 a barrel in the coming weeks, average U.S. gasoline could retreat to about $3.75 per gallon. He expects oil to ease to roughly $80 a barrel by year end, resulting in an average U.S. gas price near $3.50. Zandi cautions, however, that price declines tend to be gradual compared with the sharp spikes seen during geopolitical shocks.
Experts warn that any breakdown of the truce or renewed attacks could quickly push prices back up. For now, the ceasefire has reduced near-term volatility, but consumers should be prepared for only modest, incremental relief at the pump unless stability holds and global oil supplies firm more substantially.
Edited by Alain Sherter
Tags: Iran; Consumer News; Gas Prices; Oil and Gas