May 15, 2026 — As the global climate shifts toward an El Niño pattern, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are warming — just as the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins. That combination sets the stage for a more active season in the Eastern and Central Pacific, while tending to suppress activity in the tropical Atlantic.
Why this matters
Warm ocean water supplies the energy hurricanes need to form and intensify. Under El Niño, warmer-than-normal Pacific waters and changes in the upper-level winds typically create an environment with reduced vertical wind shear over much of the eastern and central Pacific. Lower shear allows tropical storms to maintain their vertical structure and strengthens the odds that disturbances will grow into sustained tropical cyclones.
At the same time, El Niño usually increases wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and can be associated with somewhat cooler Atlantic tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures relative to non–El Niño years. Those factors make the Atlantic less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, so Atlantic seasons during El Niño years tend to be quieter on average. That said, “less active” is not the same as “no risk” — landfalling storms remain possible, and a single powerful hurricane can cause outsized impacts.
Recent seasons for context
The last El Niño before this transition occurred in 2023. That year the Eastern Pacific produced around 20 tropical systems, 17 of them becoming named storms. One notable example was Hurricane Hilary, which moved through Baja California and then brought heavy rain and flooding into parts of California, Arizona and Nevada, causing multiple fatalities and substantial damage in the U.S. and Mexico.
By contrast, the region spent much of the intervening period in La Niña conditions, which are correlated with busier Atlantic seasons. In 2025, during a La Niña phase, the Eastern Pacific produced roughly 18 tropical systems; Hurricane Kiko was a standout that tracked toward the Hawaiian Islands before weakening in cooler waters north of the islands.
What to expect in 2026
Forecasters expect El Niño to favor an above-average Eastern Pacific season: more frequent tropical disturbances and a higher chance some will strengthen into hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific name list for 2026 begins with Amanda, followed by Boris, Cristina and Douglas; the list rotates every six years.
In the Atlantic, statistical guidance and the typical El Niño influence point toward a below-average season overall. Still, fewer storms does not eliminate the threat of landfalling hurricanes or damaging tropical storms for communities along the U.S., Caribbean and Central American coasts.
Monitoring and preparedness
The National Hurricane Center and regional forecast centers will monitor both basins throughout the season and issue Tropical Weather Outlooks and advisories multiple times per day when systems are active. Residents in hurricane-prone areas should review emergency plans, ensure evacuation and supply plans are current, and pay attention to official forecasts and warnings when disturbances develop.
Bottom line: El Niño raises the odds of a busier Eastern Pacific season while tending to suppress Atlantic activity on average. But history shows that even quieter Atlantic seasons can still produce impactful storms, so preparedness remains essential.