By Caitlin Yilek, CBS News — May 15, 2026
Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates told Face the Nation that the greatest danger Cuba poses to the United States is the island’s potential collapse and the resulting migration crisis, not an imminent military threat.
Gates warned the primary risk would be a mass exodus similar to the 1980 Mariel Boatlift, when roughly 125,000 Cubans fled to the United States amid economic collapse and political unrest. Such an event, he said, could produce tens of thousands of desperate migrants and strain U.S. communities and services.
While Gates acknowledged that Cuba has affected U.S. national security in more limited ways — for example, by providing security assistance related to the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — he questioned whether Cuba currently presents an imminent direct threat to the United States.
The comments come as the Trump administration has repeatedly threatened Cuba with possible military action and pushed for economic and political changes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials have called for reforms, while the administration has tightened sanctions and restricted fuel and other imports that critics say amount to an economic blockade.
Cuban officials have reported steep energy shortages, and Cuba’s energy minister said the country had effectively run out of fuel, a development attributed largely to U.S. pressure. Those shortages have heightened concerns about political instability and humanitarian fallout.
Separately, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana for a rare meeting with senior Cuban officials, a U.S. official told CBS News. Ratcliffe delivered a message that Washington is willing to expand economic and security engagement if Havana undertakes fundamental changes.
Gates urged attention to the humanitarian and migration consequences of Cuba’s economic decline, suggesting U.S. policy should account for the risks of instability and large-scale displacement rather than focus solely on provocative rhetoric or military options.