CBS News projects that Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales and far-right gun activist Brandon Herrera will advance to a primary runoff, with neither expected to reach the 50% threshold needed to avoid a May 26 runoff. The rematch follows a contentious period after Gonzales was accused in recently released texts of exchanging sexually suggestive messages with a former aide who later died by suicide.
Gonzales, first elected in 2020 and long viewed as a moderate, narrowly defeated Herrera by roughly 400 votes in the 2024 primary. Since that contest he has moved rightward in his messaging and has highlighted an endorsement from former President Donald Trump in the current race, though Trump left Gonzales off a public endorsements list last Friday.
CBS News obtained text messages from May 2024 between Gonzales and former aide Regina Santos-Aviles. The texts include requests for intimate photos and other sexually suggestive remarks; Santos-Aviles responded that the messages were going too far. Santos-Aviles died in September; Uvalde police reported she set herself on fire and described her death as a suicide. Gonzales has denied that an affair took place.
Gonzales is married and has six children; Santos-Aviles was married and had an eight-year-old son. After the texts became public, members of both parties called for Gonzales to resign.
Texas’ 23rd Congressional District stretches more than 800 miles along the U.S.-Mexico border. Once a competitive swing district, it was redrawn in 2021 to favor Republicans, and Gonzales won reelection by more than 20 percentage points in 2024. Following Texas’ 2025 redistricting, the district is still widely considered safely Republican. The close primary between Gonzales and Herrera now sets the stage for a runoff that will determine the GOP nominee for the seat.
Updated March 4, 2026.