The conflict involving Iran is already disrupting global oil markets and is likely to push U.S. gasoline prices higher, Sahar Razavi, director of the Iranian and Middle Eastern Studies Center at California State University, Sacramento, told CBS News.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively choked off roughly 20% of the oil that normally moves through that vital waterway. That loss of supply is a direct pressure point on global markets.
Iran’s ally, the Houthi movement, has also been active in the Red Sea. If they or other actors were to cut off shipments there, the economic fallout could be significant, affecting not only crude flows but broader trade routes.
Those disruptions could be felt in Americans’ pocketbooks. Beyond higher fuel costs, there are local and political implications: the United States maintains military bases in states such as California, and a protracted military engagement with U.S. casualties would likely increase domestic opposition to the conflict as service members are killed or wounded.
There is also concern the war could broaden. Russia and China, which maintain ties to Tehran, might offer political or material support. China relies on Iran (along with Venezuela) for relatively inexpensive oil, so strikes on Iran present Beijing with a difficult choice. Recent cargo flights and reported military drills involving Russian equipment near Tehran indicate both Moscow and Beijing have signaled backing to the extent it aligns with their national interests, even as they avoid direct involvement.
Taken together, reduced supply through key chokepoints and the risk of wider international entanglement raise the likelihood of higher energy prices and greater uncertainty for consumers.