Vinton, Iowa — March 28, 2026
Lifelong farmer Lance Lillibridge of Vinton says the Iran conflict has arrived at the worst possible time for spring planting. “It couldn’t have come at a worst time,” Lillibridge told CBS News, expressing deep concern about rising input costs.
The war has pushed fuel and fertilizer prices sharply higher, compounding an already fragile farm economy. Oxford Economics reports that ammonia and urea — two key fertilizer ingredients — have risen roughly 20% and 50% respectively since the conflict began, while AAA notes diesel is up about 43.5%.
Agricultural policy expert Scott Marlow, a former deputy administrator at the USDA Farm Service Agency, warned the shock is imposed on both producers and consumers. “This situation is not driven by either the person producing the food or the person buying it,” he said, noting the effects flow through every step of the food supply chain.
Higher energy and fertilizer costs raise expenses from seed and field operations through processing and transportation, making it likelier that grocery bills could rise. The increase in fuel prices has also weighed on major stock indexes.
Many farmers had hoped for a rebound after a difficult year: U.S. farm bankruptcies climbed again in 2025, with the American Farm Bureau Federation reporting a 46% increase from 2024. Lillibridge says his own costs are about 25% higher than last year and fears continued losses will push the next generation away from farming. “If our kids see us struggling out here, why would they want to take it on?” he asked.
With input costs climbing and markets uncertain, growers face hard choices about acreage, fertilizer use and financing. Producers and consumers alike remain vulnerable to the longer-term fallout if global instability continues.