The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The outlook, released ahead of the June 1 start, projects 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 of which could become hurricanes, and 1 to 3 qualifying as major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
NOAA officials emphasized that a below-average forecast does not eliminate danger. “Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs. He and National Weather Service director Ken Graham also highlighted improvements in forecasting technology that they said strengthen preparedness and response. “We’ve never been as prepared for hurricane season as we are now,” Graham said.
NOAA assigns probabilities to the overall season: roughly a 55% chance of below-normal activity, a 35% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of above-normal activity. The agency will update the outlook multiple times over the summer as conditions evolve.
How storms are classified: a tropical system receives a name once maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph; it becomes a hurricane at 74 mph. A “major” hurricane has sustained winds of at least 111 mph and falls into Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The Atlantic season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with peak activity usually occurring between August and October. NOAA notes that the busiest and most intense storms typically form during that peak window.
NOAA’s 2026 outlook follows a similar forecast issued earlier this month by Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software Team (CSU). CSU predicted slightly below-average activity as well, estimating 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Both groups will revise forecasts as the season approaches.
Reviewing last year: NOAA’s 2025 outlook initially called for 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes, and was adjusted in August to 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. The 2025 season produced 13 named storms, including five hurricanes — four of them major — slightly below the long-term average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
El Niño and the 2026 season: NOAA and other meteorologists say the likely transition into El Niño is a key factor in the below-average forecast. El Niño typically increases wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which suppresses storm formation and development there. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently said there is at least an 82% chance El Niño will be in place by July. Forecasters caution that El Niño does not prevent storms entirely — it reduces the statistical likelihood of an active Atlantic season but does not eliminate the threat.
El Niño often has the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where warmer waters and favorable atmospheric conditions can enhance tropical cyclone activity.
Preparation reminder: Despite a forecast for reduced activity, officials urged residents in hurricane-prone areas to prepare now. A single landfalling storm can cause major damage, and being ready — with evacuation plans, emergency supplies and an updated plan for pets and family — remains essential.
2026 storm names: The World Meteorological Organization preassigns names used for Atlantic storms. The main 2026 list includes: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred. If more than 21 named storms form, a supplemental naming list would be used.
NOAA’s Atlantic seasonal outlook will be refined over the summer as ocean and atmospheric conditions become clearer. Nikki Nolan of CBS News contributed to this reporting. Emily Mae Czachor, News Editor, reported the NOAA forecast update on May 21, 2026.