New Yorkers and others across several states head to the polls Tuesday for high-stakes primary contests that could reshape the balance inside both parties. These races feature enormous outside spending, pitched progressive-versus-establishment fights, test cases for Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s influence and a series of contests where national players — from AI companies to pro-Israel groups and former President Donald Trump — are placing big bets.
Outside spending and policy flashpoints
Two House primaries have attracted unusually large sums from outside groups focused on cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and Middle East policy. New York’s 12th District has become a proxy fight over AI regulation: a super PAC tied to OpenAI leaders and allied investors has poured at least $10 million into efforts opposing state legislator Alex Bores, a vocal advocate of stricter AI rules. Anthropic-backed groups and others have countered by supporting Bores, framing the contest as a clash over how aggressively Congress should regulate AI.
The 12th also features state legislator Micah Lasher, who has significant Bloomberg-funded outside support and endorsements from figures like retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, plus other well-known entrants including Jack Schlossberg and George Conway. Outside pro-Israel and pro-crypto groups have also spent heavily in the open Maryland primary to replace Rep. Steny Hoyer, coalescing around state Del. Adrian Boafo, Hoyer’s preferred successor. That Maryland race includes Harry Dunn, backed by Nancy Pelosi, and Quincy Bareebe, who self-funded millions.
The pro-Israel United Democracy PAC and other groups have spread hundreds of thousands of dollars into New York contests as well, elevating Israel policy as a decisive wedge issue in several primaries.
The Mamdani test
Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsements are being watched as a measure of the mayor’s sway with New York progressives. Mamdani has backed challengers in three marquee city primaries, two against sitting Democrats.
In the 10th District, progressive Brad Lander is challenging Rep. Dan Goldman. Goldman has establishment backing from Gov. Kathy Hochul and House leadership; Lander is supported by Mamdani and progressive national figures. Israel policy has been central: Goldman has both AIPAC and J Street endorsements and casts his approach as progressive, while Lander has sharply criticized Israel’s conduct in Gaza and supports measures to restrict certain arms sales.
In the 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat is being challenged by democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier. Espaillat points to his immigrant-rights record and has broad establishment support, while Avila Chevalier presses for more urgent progressive reforms — abolishing ICE, backing Medicare for All, opposing Israel’s actions in Gaza and supporting “Block the Bombs” legislation. Mamdani’s late flip to back Avila Chevalier after earlier intimations he would back Espaillat stirred controversy.
The open 7th District, vacated by Nydia Velázquez, pits Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, favored by Velázquez, against state Assemblymember Claire Valdez, whom Mamdani backs. The race centers on competing visions of progressive governance, with both candidates supporting ambitious housing and labor measures but differing in tone and alliances.
Trump’s mixed strategy and key Republican matchups
Donald Trump has remained a potent force in GOP primaries but hasn’t been immune to setbacks. In South Carolina’s gubernatorial race, Trump initially endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette; she placed first in the June primary and advanced to a runoff with Attorney General Alan Wilson. After lower-finishing Republicans coalesced behind Wilson, Trump issued a dual endorsement of both Evette and Wilson to avoid alienating supporters on either side.
Trump has also weighed in on congressional GOP primaries. He backed businessman Anthony Constantino in upstate New York’s 21st District and is supporting several Utah incumbents facing primary challenges. In those Republican primaries, Trump’s backing is widely influential but not always decisive.
Incumbents and self-funded challengers
Several incumbents face well-funded challengers. In Maryland’s 6th District, Rep. April McClain Delaney is being challenged by David Trone, who has poured tens of millions of his own money into the campaign. The race has featured attacks on immigration votes and disputes over political giving and priorities.
In New York other incumbents such as Reps. Grace Meng, Yvette Clarke and Ritchie Torres also face challengers, though none have yet produced the same level of outside intensity as the marquee contests.
Redistricting ripples
Recent court-ordered and state redistricting has created new matchups and opportunities. In Utah, a redrawn Salt Lake City-based seat has Democrats hopeful of breaking the GOP’s hold on the delegation. Former Rep. Ben McAdams leads fundraising and emphasizes experience; state Sen. Nate Blouin seeks to consolidate the progressive lane with endorsements from national progressives but has been damaged by revelations of past online posts. Other Democratic hopefuls in the Utah primary include Michael Farrell and Liban Mohamed.
In Maryland, state Senate President Bill Ferguson faces a serious primary challenge from community activist Bobby LaPin after a stand he took against partisan redistricting drew statewide attention. The challenge has opened intra-party fights over priorities in Baltimore and beyond.
Key battlegrounds to watch
New York’s 17th District is among the cycle’s most-watched battlegrounds. With Republican Rep. Mike Lawler defending a seat Vice President Kamala Harris carried narrowly in 2024, Democrats hope to nominate a candidate who can compete in November. Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson emphasizes local experience and a pro-Israel voice that is critical of some Israeli government policies; former cybersecurity official Cait Conley touts national-security credentials and has support from groups such as VoteVets.
In the 19th District, freshman Rep. Josh Riley will be on defense in a closely divided district where Republicans mounted a strong challenge in 2024. Long Island swing seats held by Democrats Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen are also on the GOP radar; Trump-backed and other conservative challengers are seeking rematches or open opportunities there.
In South Carolina, runoffs will determine the GOP and Democratic nominees in a competitive coastal district. The Republican runoff features state Rep. Mark Smith against Jenny Costa Hunnycutt, while the Democratic runoff pits two veterans with different organizational backers against each other.
What Tuesday means
These primaries matter for more than local politics. They are testing grounds for how the Democratic Party balances its progressive and establishment wings around foreign policy, AI regulation and immigration; they also show how new political money — from tech founders, AI companies and pro-Israel groups — can shape contests. On the Republican side, Trump’s endorsements remain consequential but are being deployed tactically, including in ways designed to avoid fracturing GOP coalitions.
Across states, voters will decide whether insurgent progressive candidates can displace incumbents, whether deep-pocketed self-funders can buy influence, and how national issue fights translate into local victories. The outcomes will send signals about the direction of both parties heading into the general election.