In a meeting in Kyiv last week, U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll delivered a stark assessment to Ukrainian officials: their forces faced a dire battlefield situation and could suffer imminent defeat against Russian troops, two sources told NBC News. Driscoll warned that Russia was intensifying aerial attacks, had the capacity to fight indefinitely, and that Ukraine’s position would deteriorate over time — making negotiation of a peace settlement now preferable to ending up weaker later.
The U.S. delegation also told Ukrainian officials that American defense industry production could not sustain weapons and air-defense deliveries at the pace needed to protect Ukraine’s infrastructure and population, the sources said.
Driscoll presented a U.S.-backed peace plan that Kyiv officials viewed as capitulating to many of Moscow’s demands, according to two sources. “The message was basically — you are losing,” one source said, “and you need to accept the deal.” Ukraine declined to sign the plan as presented, and the proposal has been substantially revised since the Kyiv discussions.
The meeting illustrated a deepening rift inside the Trump administration over the best path to end the war — a split that has taken on political overtones as potential 2028 presidential contenders position themselves. One faction, associated with Vice President J.D. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and others, views Kyiv as the barrier to peace and favors using U.S. leverage to push Ukraine toward major compromises. Another, represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and backers, blames Russia for the invasion and argues Moscow must be forced to pay a price through sanctions and pressure.
President Donald Trump has oscillated on the approach, with deputies, Republican lawmakers and European leaders all vying to influence policy. The White House pointed reporters to a Trump social media post saying the original peace plan had been “fine-tuned” with input from both sides and that he hoped to meet Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin when a deal was final. A State Department spokesperson said the administration — including Rubio, Witkoff and Driscoll — was working together to end the war.
Diplomatic activity surged after a purported 28-point U.S. plan was leaked. Sources said the draft emerged from discussions in Miami between Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev and U.S. envoy Witkoff. The initial plan embraced repeated Russian demands: forcing Ukraine to cede territory, scale back its military, give up NATO aspirations, and included provisions that some read as barring U.S. forces from Poland. Some U.S. senators said Rubio had told them the document was essentially a Russian wish list; Rubio later disputed that account and the White House framed the plan as a U.S. proposal that incorporated Russian and Ukrainian input.
In an unusual choice, the White House sent Driscoll — not a senior diplomat — to brief Kyiv. Driscoll, a former Yale Law classmate of Vance, had been scheduled to visit to discuss drone technology. Taken aback by the original terms, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed serious doubts but did not veto talks and said Ukraine remained open to diplomacy.
After the leak, Rubio flew to Geneva, where talks with Ukrainian officials and appeals from European diplomats led to the removal or revision of some of the most problematic provisions. Rubio described the proposal as “a living, breathing document” that was changing with daily input. By the following Tuesday, Kyiv expressed guarded optimism about a 19-point plan under discussion; Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defense council, said delegations had reached common understanding on core terms and suggested a possible Zelenskyy visit to Washington to finalize a deal.
Driscoll then traveled to Abu Dhabi and met with a Russian delegation. With revisions, the plan more closely resembled past proposals Russia has rejected. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who had initially welcomed the draft, said the Kremlin might now reject the revised text, arguing it appeared to conflict with an understanding allegedly reached between Trump and Putin in Anchorage, Alaska. Lavrov warned that forces were trying to change the spirit of previous talks and that removing that spirit would alter the process.
Western officials and former diplomats said the episode reflected a recurring pattern in U.S. diplomacy: one faction within the administration advancing proposals seen as favorable to Moscow while others, with backing from European governments and senior Republicans, push back. William Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said a lasting split would make it difficult to pursue coherent policy.
The White House, State Department and Ukrainian embassy did not provide detailed public comments beyond statements about ongoing negotiations and coordination. The peace plan remains under discussion as U.S., Ukrainian, Russian and European actors continue diplomacy amid sharp disagreements over terms and strategy.
Dan De Luce is a reporter for the NBC News Investigative Unit. Courtney Kube is a correspondent covering national security and the military for NBC News Investigative Unit. Abigail Williams is a producer and reporter for NBC News covering the State Department. Gordon Lubold and Peter Nicholas contributed.
