Chinese President Xi Jinping has largely remained quiet as the United States and Israel confront Iran, a restraint made more conspicuous after the White House delayed an expected trip by President Donald Trump. Analysts told ABC News that Beijing’s low-profile stance, combined with the wider regional crisis, is improving China’s strategic position ahead of a likely Xi-Trump meeting in May.
Jon Czin, a Brookings Institution fellow and former National Security Council China director, says the crisis is diverting U.S. military assets from the Indo-Pacific and occupying Washington’s attention. That distraction gives Beijing time and space to concentrate on strengthening itself and reduces the chance China becomes the central target of U.S. policy moves.
Beijing so far has declined to intervene even after public urging from Trump to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Observers note China has limited incentive to act: some Chinese vessels have continued to transit the strait despite disruptions, and Beijing has built strategic oil reserves and expanded investments in green energy, lessening its immediate exposure to oil shocks.
Beyond restraint, China is treating the conflict as an intelligence and lessons-learned opportunity. Czin and other experts say Beijing is closely watching how U.S. forces operate in a live confrontation — material that could feed into Taiwan planning and war-gaming, complementing insights already drawn from the Ukraine war.
Analysts also say Chinese leaders began 2026 believing they hold more leverage over Washington than many in the U.S. had assumed. Beijing has highlighted U.S. economic vulnerabilities, including labor-market and affordability pressures, as factors that might curb Trump’s appetite for escalation. China has pressed its advantages on critical minerals too: Beijing imposed export controls on rare earths shortly before Trump’s last meeting with Xi, a move that drew no immediate U.S. retaliation.
Jude Blanchette, director of RAND’s China Research Center, says rare-earth leverage has shifted the dynamic since Trump’s first term. A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down broad emergency tariff authority further narrows Washington’s options as the summit approaches.
The in-person meeting, originally set for March 31–April 2, was postponed by roughly six weeks because of the Iran conflict. Ahead of the encounter, analysts expect Xi to press for extensions of trade truces, rollbacks or easing of export controls on advanced technologies (including AI-capable semiconductors), and reduced scrutiny of Chinese investment in the U.S.
But Czin argues Beijing’s core objective is straightforward: leave the summit without yielding substantive concessions, buy more time, and keep strengthening its position. Even a largely ceremonial, high-profile visit that avoids losses would be a strategic win for China.