Updated on: April 24, 2026 / 8:07 PM EDT
Washington — After President Trump framed the military campaign against Iran as one the United States could sustain “forever” with a “virtually unlimited supply” of key munitions, recent Pentagon testimony and outside analysis paint a more constrained picture. The U.S. retains highly advanced strike and defensive systems, but many of those weapons are finite and expensive to replace.
Analysts and military officials have flagged shortages in long-range strike missiles and interceptor rounds used to protect forces. The president’s announcement of an indefinite ceasefire extension with Iran created a window to re-arm regional forces after five weeks of intensive strikes, but questions remain about long-term inventories and readiness for future conflicts.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies assessed U.S. stocks and concluded the nation “may have expended more than half of the prewar inventory” of at least four critical munitions, including Tomahawk cruise missiles. CSIS said current supplies are sufficient for plausible continuations of the present campaign, but the real risk comes in a subsequent war or simultaneous high-end fights in multiple theaters.
Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that expanding production of high-end weapons such as Tomahawks or the AGM-158 JASSM will not be quick. “I think it will take one to two years for them to scale,” he said, warning that manufacturers like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon need time to ramp up and that production timelines will be too slow for some contingencies.
Defense planners draw a distinction between capability and capacity: the U.S. fields world-leading systems, but quantities are limited and replacement rates are slow. Air-defense interceptors are in demand across the Middle East, Europe and the Indo-Pacific, forcing trade-offs when weapons used in one theater are drawn from stockpiles intended for another. Many advanced munitions rely on complex supply chains and specialized parts that complicate rapid expansion.
At the hearing, Paparo stressed the scale of consumption modern combat requires and urged a stronger industrial base and cooperation with nontraditional firms. He argued for “supercharging” the defense industrial base and working with smaller companies producing lower-cost technologies, including some types of drones.
In early March, the president met with defense executives who he said agreed to increase production of so-called “exquisite” weaponry — the most advanced, costly and scarce systems such as Tomahawk and Patriot missiles — by fourfold. Since then, the Defense Department has announced framework agreements to boost THAAD production, secure critical missile components and accelerate delivery of Precision Strike Missiles. The Pentagon’s procurement request for the year sought more than $70 billion for missiles and related equipment, nearly triple the prior year’s procurement level.
CSIS noted that, even with expanded lines, returning to prewar stock levels could take between one and four years as missiles already in the production pipeline are delivered; timelines will vary by weapon and supplier. The president said he planned to meet with defense firms again in May to press for faster output.
Concerns about munitions shortages are not new. They were underscored after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when allied production struggled to keep pace with battlefield demand — a crisis concentrated in artillery. The current worry centers on long-range missiles and interceptors that would be decisive in high-end conflicts, including any potential contest with a peer adversary such as China.
Sen. Jack Reed warned that the Iran campaign has driven significant posture changes across other regions, citing transfers of a carrier strike group, an amphibious ready group, missile defenses and additional munitions into Central Command. Army Gen. Xavier Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, said THAAD batteries remain on the peninsula but acknowledged that some munitions and assets were being repositioned or forward-deployed.
Officials say the remedy is to rapidly expand production capacity, incentivize industry investment in factories, and diversify suppliers to reduce bottlenecks. Those changes, they acknowledge, will take years to materialize — meaning the U.S. must manage current limits while building a more resilient industrial base for future crises.