As California’s gubernatorial primary approaches, voters’ concerns center on the high cost of living and whether the “California Dream” is still attainable. Partisan differences shape how people assess the state’s condition and what they expect from the next governor.
Qualities voters care about
Voters say “values” and “judgment” are especially important in a gubernatorial candidate. Democrats place additional weight on experience; Republicans more often prioritize change. Most voters say debates matter at least somewhat, leaving room for shifts in opinion in the month before the primary.
Cost of living and outlook
More Californians now describe the state’s cost of living as “unmanageable” than five years ago, reflecting post‑pandemic inflation and other strains. Confidence that California still offers upward mobility has declined overall, though people under 50 remain more optimistic than older residents. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to feel the California Dream remains within reach.
Partisan views of the economy and policy preferences
Democrats generally view California’s economy more favorably and are likelier to say the state sets a positive national example. Republicans paint a darker picture, seeing the state as lagging behind the national economy. Those views influence desired policy directions: Democrats tend to prefer approaches similar to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s, while Republicans seek more dramatic changes, including tax reductions. Within the Democratic primary, supporters of former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra are somewhat likelier to favor continuity with Newsom, while Tom Steyer backers lean toward different policies.
Immediate economic pressures
Gas prices are a particular strain for many voters, and Californians are split about suspending part of the state gas tax, with slightly more opposed than in favor. Across party lines, the economy, jobs, and inflation rank at or near the top of concerns. Republicans place greater emphasis on immigration and crime; Democrats prioritize climate change and healthcare. Large shares of voters link higher gas prices to international tensions, including the conflict in Iran.
Foreign policy and Iran
A majority of California voters oppose U.S. military action in Iran, and many say a candidate’s stance on that issue would influence their vote. Concerns about international developments are influencing views on domestic economic issues for some voters.
The Trump factor
Democrats overwhelmingly prefer a candidate who consistently opposes former President Donald Trump and who would not cooperate with the administration on ICE operations. Many Democrats also believe the Trump administration treats California worse than other states. Republican voters generally want a candidate who usually or always supports Trump.
The race and voter choices
The primary remains wide open and fragmented. No clear top-two frontrunners have emerged. At mid‑April, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer each registered support in the mid‑teens, while most other candidates were clustered in single digits. More voters remain undecided than support any single candidate, highlighting potential volatility.
Electoral dynamics and turnout risks
California’s registered Democrats outnumber Republicans, but the large Democratic field could split votes and open the possibility that two Republicans advance to November. Democratic voters have not consolidated around one candidate. When asked which candidates they would consider supporting, many voters named multiple options, suggesting potential ceilings for candidates who cannot convert consideration into committed support. Cross‑party consideration is uncommon: Democrats rarely consider Republicans and vice versa. A substantial share of primary voters say they are dissatisfied with the current choices; independents most often want more options. Unsatisfied voters are less likely to say they will vote, meaning turnout could shift the outcome.
Survey methodology
This analysis is based on a CBS News/YouGov survey of 1,479 registered California voters interviewed April 23–27, 2026. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education, and region using the voter file and U.S. Census data, and by 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±4.2 points for registered voters and ±4.1 points for likely primary voters.