GOP officials in several southern states moved this week to potentially redraw congressional maps after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a Louisiana map that created two Democratic-leaning, majority-Black districts. Louisiana officials suspended the May 16 House primaries and encouraged lawmakers to redraw congressional lines. Alabama and Tennessee governors called special legislative sessions to consider redistricting steps.
A CBS News analysis found that, in a best-case scenario for Republicans, several southern states could redraw maps, survive legal challenges and collectively add between one and nine GOP-leaning seats for the 2026 midterms; that number could grow for 2028 as more states respond to the ruling. But timing is a major obstacle. Many states have held primaries, face upcoming primaries, or have passed candidate filing deadlines. Legal challenges are likely, and last-minute changes risk running afoul of the Purcell principle, which discourages federal courts from changing election rules too close to an election. The broader political environment — voter concerns about the economy and the U.S. war with Iran — could also make 2026 a difficult cycle for Republicans, prompting some to wait until 2028.
Louisiana (potential +1 to +2 R seats)
After the Supreme Court decision, Louisiana officials suspended the U.S. House primary originally set for May 16; early voting had been scheduled to begin May 2 and ballots were already printed. Secretary of State Nancy Landry certified an emergency and Gov. Jeff Landry issued an executive order urging the Legislature to pass new congressional maps and schedule elections “as soon as practical.” The state attorney general said Louisiana may revert to an older map that had one Black-majority district and favored Republicans in five districts. Depending on how aggressively GOP lawmakers redraw lines, they could carve up Black-majority districts to produce one to two additional Republican-leaning seats. Louisiana is nearly one-third Black, and Democrats warn redistricting could affect many levels of representation.
Florida (potential +4 R seats)
A map proposed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and passed by the state Legislature would add as many as four Republican-leaning seats by shrinking or eliminating Democratic-leaning districts in Tampa, Orlando and parts of the southeast coast. DeSantis advisers argued the Supreme Court ruling weakens racial requirements tied to Florida’s “Fair Districts” constitutional amendments. Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias has pledged to challenge the map in court.
Tennessee (potential +1 R)
U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn and other Republicans urged the Tennessee Legislature to reconvene and redraw congressional lines to break up the 9th District that covers Memphis and dilute the Black voter population. Blackburn’s proposed map could yield a 9–0 Republican delegation by converting the Memphis-based Democratic seat. Gov. Bill Lee called a special session to consider redistricting; Tennessee’s congressional primaries are scheduled for Aug. 6, though candidate qualifying deadlines have already passed.
Mississippi (potential +1 R)
Gov. Tate Reeves announced a redistricting session after the Louisiana ruling, though his initial call focused on state Supreme Court districts challenged over diluting Black voters’ power. Republicans could add a GOP-leaning seat by targeting Mississippi’s 2nd Congressional District, a majority-Black district held by Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson. But Mississippi already held its primaries in March, creating logistical and legal complications for scheduling another primary or altering ballots.
Alabama (potential +1 R)
Alabama previously faced the Supreme Court in Allen v. Milligan (2023), which required the state to create a second Black-majority congressional seat. Subsequent litigation produced a court-drawn map now in place. After the Louisiana decision, Gov. Kay Ivey initially cited ongoing litigation as a reason not to call a special session but later convened lawmakers to schedule special elections in case maps are changed. Alabama currently has two districts with predominantly Black electorates held by Democrats; a new ruling could allow the state to revert to a map with fewer Black-majority districts.
Constraints and considerations
– Timing: Many states face tight timelines after candidate filing deadlines or completed primaries, complicating midcycle redistricting.
– Legal challenges: Democratic lawyers and voting rights advocates are expected to sue, arguing changes violate federal law or state constitutions. Courts may block late changes under the Purcell principle.
– Political climate: Polling and national issues could make 2026 less favorable for Republicans, prompting some to delay aggressive map changes until 2028.
– Broader impact: Beyond congressional seats, changes could affect state legislative maps, school boards, and local offices, potentially reducing Black representation in multiple bodies.
Observers note the ruling could have implications for dozens of districts nationwide, particularly in the congressional Black caucus. Some Republican officials have urged quick action to redraw maps, while voting rights experts caution that legal and logistical hurdles will limit how many changes can be implemented in time for 2026.
Nikole Killion contributed to this report.