Updated on: April 9, 2026 / 8:22 PM EDT / CBS News
An eleventh-hour truce between the U.S. and Iran has eased immediate tensions, but experts say Americans may not see quick relief at the pump.
Patrick De Haan, petroleum expert at GasBuddy, said pump prices could start to fall as soon as this weekend, though the initial drop might be only a few cents per gallon. “If the situation holds and it doesn’t worsen, the national average probably has enough room to make a run at falling back below the $4 gallon mark,” he said, adding it would likely take a couple of weeks.
Fuel remains high: the national average for regular gas rose to $4.16 on Wednesday, up from $2.98 before U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February and 91 cents higher than a year ago, according to AAA. Some states saw prices above $5 a gallon; diesel averaged $5.67. De Haan cautioned that any unraveling of the ceasefire could reverse declines quickly.
Global oil slipped below $95 a barrel on Wednesday—down from levels at the height of the confrontation but still well above the $65–$75 range before the conflict. Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said a lasting ceasefire should at least stabilize gas prices, if not push them lower, but outcomes depend heavily on perceptions of safety in the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait is critical—normally handling about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas shipments—and reports are mixed. Iranian media say Tehran has suspended tanker traffic through the strait and is weighing withdrawal from the deal with Washington over Israeli actions in Lebanon. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump is aware of those reports but called them “false.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, projects that if oil stabilizes around $90 per barrel in coming weeks, gas will retreat to roughly $3.75 a gallon. He expects oil to fall to about $80 a barrel by year’s end and U.S. gas to average near $3.50. “I don’t think there is any going back to sub-$3 a gallon for a while,” Zandi said. “Prices go up like a rocket, and they come down like a feather.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
In: Iran; Consumer News; Gas Prices; Oil and Gas