It was four weeks ago tonight that the U.S. military was secretly on the verge of attacking Iran. Since then, the U.S. and Israel have hurt but not eliminated Iran’s missile threat. Tonight a dozen more U.S. troops were wounded after Iran hit an air base in Saudi Arabia, and the Trump administration says the fighting could last another two to four weeks.
Senior foreign correspondent Holly Williams in Tel Aviv reported the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying the Strait of Hormuz is closed and vowed a severe response to any ship trying to get through. That statement appears to contradict President Trump’s comment that Iran had allowed 10 ships through the strait “as a gift” while talks are underway. The president said, “We have very substantial talks going on with respect to Iran.”
With strikes and the threat of mines, Iran has effectively paralyzed traffic through the narrow passage since the early days of the war, sending energy prices higher. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries around 20% of the world’s oil. Officials and maritime experts have warned that mines and other threats make transit hazardous: “Could a single mine take out an oil tanker with a hull worth hundreds of millions of dollars and cargo worth hundreds of millions of dollars?” Williams asked, and an expert answered that nobody is likely to take that chance even with military escort.
Iran has reportedly charged some ships up to $2 million each for safe passage, described by some as either a toll or a shakedown. With President Trump under pressure to end the war, control of the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran a powerful bargaining position even as it is being struck militarily. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he expects the war to continue for weeks, not months, and said the U.S. can achieve its objectives in Iran without sending ground troops.