Voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas head to the polls Tuesday in contests that could reshape fall matchups and direct where national money and attention flow. Several marquee nominations and a number of consequential down-ballot fights are on the ballot, with Texas offering the highest-profile, most volatile lineup.
Texas Senate
The spotlight is on the U.S. Senate contest in Texas, where four-term Republican Sen. John Cornyn — in Washington since 2002 — faces an unusually contentious primary challenge that could end his long Senate tenure. Attorney General Ken Paxton announced his bid in spring 2025, accusing Cornyn of abandoning the former president and the “America First” movement. Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House and acquitted by the state Senate in 2023, mobilizes a conservative base but raises questions for Republicans about general election viability.
Also in the Republican field is Rep. Wesley Hunt, who has presented his candidacy as a generational alternative to Cornyn and pushed for change after more than two decades of Cornyn’s incumbency. If no Republican captures a majority Tuesday, the top two finishers will advance to a late-May runoff — and Cornyn could conceivably be knocked out before then, eliminating a fixture of the Senate Republican delegation.
Cornyn and other establishment Republicans have warned that a Paxton nomination could hurt Republicans in down-ballot statewide races, with Cornyn calling Paxton a potential liability for the party. President Trump has not endorsed any of the leading Republican contenders in the Senate primary.
The Democratic primary is also competitive. U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, both identified with the party’s progressive wing, have clashed over strategy and electability in a state Democrats have not won in a statewide race since the 1990s. Talarico has emphasized an economic populist message focused on wealth inequality; Crockett says victory will come from engaging voters who feel overlooked or excluded. Some conservative observers publicly view Crockett as the weaker general-election opponent, a dynamic that has injected additional tension into the Democratic contest.
How Democrats settle that internal debate will affect messaging through November, especially with Texas’s sizable Latino electorate a potentially decisive factor in the fall.
House contests in Texas
Several House incumbents in Texas also face significant primary challenges. GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales in the 23rd district is contending with a repeat conservative challenger, Brandon Herrera, whom Gonzales narrowly beat in 2024; Gonzales has also faced scrutiny over misconduct allegations involving a staffer who later died by suicide. In the 2nd district, Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw is defending his seat against state Rep. Steve Toth; Crenshaw lacks a Trump endorsement while Toth counts Sen. Ted Cruz among his backers.
Redistricting designed to shift five Democratic seats has produced notable intraparty matchups. In the 18th district, Rep. Al Green faces Rep. Christian Menefee, who recently won a special election. Rep. Julie Johnson was drawn into a different contest against former Rep. Collin Allred, who ran statewide in 2024. In the conservative-leaning 15th district of South Texas, Tejano musician Bobby Pulido is contesting the Democratic nomination against left-leaning challenger Ada Cuellar.
North Carolina and Arkansas
Arkansas voters will hold their own primary races Tuesday, while North Carolina advances toward what could become another competitive Senate matchup in the fall. Former Gov. Roy Cooper is running as the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in a state Democrats view as a tangible pickup opportunity; Cooper faces several minor primary opponents and is expected to secure the nomination easily.
On the Republican side in North Carolina, Michael Whatley resigned as chairman of the Republican National Committee to run for Senate and has secured former President Trump’s backing. Whatley faces largely low-profile primary opposition but brings institutional support into the fall.
North Carolina also has an intraparty Democratic battle in a safe House seat. Incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee is defending her Durham-area district against progressive challenger Nida Allam. Federal filings show substantial outside spending aimed at supporting Foushee, and the race could serve as an early signal of tensions between established Democrats in safe districts and younger progressives pressing for a more aggressive policy agenda.
Runoffs and down-ballot implications
Many Texas primaries could be decided outright Tuesday or pushed into late-May runoffs if no candidate clears the majority threshold. Several lower-profile contests across these states could nonetheless alter the balance of House delegations and indicate where national parties will concentrate resources this fall.
Taken together, the primaries in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas will determine which nominees become the fall’s focal points, shape strategic debates within both parties, and influence how national donors and organizations allocate funding and attention ahead of the midterm elections.