Summary
Iran is reviewing a new U.S. proposal to end the fighting while simultaneously moving to formalize control over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said a deal could be close, calling the situation encouraging and predicting the war would “be over quickly,” but warned the United States could order more intense strikes if Tehran rejects the terms.
Markets and oil
Hopes for a diplomatic resolution pushed oil and equities lower Thursday. Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell more than 2% on the day and traded below $100 a barrel after roughly a 10% drop over the prior two sessions. Asian stock markets rose as investors anticipated renewed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, improving demand outlooks and supporting sectors tied to growth and AI.
Iran asserts control of Hormuz
Shipping intelligence firm Lloyd’s List reported that Iran has created a Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to manage transits and collect fees. The circulated application reportedly asks for detailed vessel ownership, insurance, crew and routing information. Lloyd’s List said the strait has seen no recorded transits since May 4 and that Iranian authorities have warned the waterway is effectively closed for now. The move would position Tehran as the principal regulator of a passage that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude.
Diplomacy and international responses
French President Emmanuel Macron told Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian that strikes affecting UAE civilian infrastructure and ships near Hormuz were unjustified and urged both sides to lift maritime restrictions. Macron plans to advance a France- and U.K.-led proposal to guarantee safe commercial passage; Iran’s presidency said Pezeshkian insisted any reopening talks must include lifting the U.S. naval blockade.
U.S. statements and negotiating posture
Mr. Trump said U.S. negotiators had “very good talks” and that Iran wants a deal, adding there is no fixed negotiation deadline. He also cautioned that if Tehran declines the offer, the United States could resume bombing at a higher level and intensity.
Domestic energy effects
U.S. average gasoline prices reached $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA — the highest since July 2022 and about 52% above pre-conflict levels — reflecting supply disruptions despite the recent crude price easing.
Tehran’s response and outlook
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said the U.S. proposal is still under review and has not been accepted. While talks have eased some market pressures, major uncertainties remain: Tehran’s formal claims over the strait, whether it will accept U.S. terms, and the risk that failed negotiations could trigger a renewed and intensified military campaign.