The U.S.-Iran conflict continued to roil global markets and geopolitics as officials in Washington and Tehran traded warnings and legal interpretations while the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed.
Economy and energy
– U.S. drivers are feeling the impact: AAA reported the national average price of gasoline at $4.39 per gallon on Friday, up nine cents from the prior day and about 34 cents from a week earlier. Supply disruptions tied to restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports are pushing prices higher.
– Global benchmark Brent crude briefly topped $126 a barrel — a four-year high — amid stalled negotiations and continued impediments to tanker traffic through Hormuz. U.S. benchmark crude also rose above $108 per barrel. Analysts warned that prolonged constraints on the strait could deepen inflationary pressures worldwide.
Cost and materiel losses
– U.S. officials have revised early public estimates of the war’s cost. While a Pentagon witness cited roughly $25 billion tied mainly to munitions, internal assessments and reporting indicate the true tally may be closer to $40–50 billion when destroyed equipment, lost drones and damaged installations are included. The Pentagon has lost dozens of high-end systems, including MQ-9 Reaper drones, amplifying the financial toll.
Diplomacy, blockade and maritime moves
– The State Department launched a diplomatic push called the “Maritime Freedom Construct” to coordinate partners and the commercial shipping industry on identifying safe corridors through the Strait of Hormuz. Details and participation remain unclear.
– Iran called the U.S. blockade of its ports an “extension of military operations” and vowed resistance. Tehran has imposed severe restrictions on commercial ships transiting Hormuz, and Washington has maintained its blockade, setting up a standoff that has choked flows of crude oil.
– Reports said President Trump would receive briefings on new options for resuming strikes in Iran, including rapid, infrastructure-focused strikes. The prospect of renewed kinetic operations added to market anxiety.
Political and legal fight in Washington
– Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine faced intense questioning on Capitol Hill as Congress approaches the 60-day War Powers deadline tied to notification of hostilities. Hegseth testified that the 60-day clock “pauses” during a ceasefire; some lawmakers, including Sen. Tim Kaine, disagreed and argued the clock ran out with Friday’s deadline unless extended.
– The Senate rejected Democrats’ sixth attempt to advance a war powers resolution to restrict the president’s authority, underscoring ongoing partisan divisions over oversight and authorization.
– White House and administration officials said they were in talks with lawmakers about authorization options ahead of the deadline, and House leaders argued congressional approval was unnecessary because the U.S. is not “at war” by their reckoning.
Iranian domestic impact
– Iran’s nationwide internet shutdown, one of the longest and strictest in the world this year, has devastated online businesses and cost the economy tens of millions of dollars per day. Officials estimate daily losses of $30–40 million directly, with indirect costs possibly double that, while millions of jobs depend on connectivity.
– Tehran’s new supreme leader issued a statement pledging to protect the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities, framing them as national assets. Iranian officials also said work was underway to rebuild warships destroyed in earlier strikes.
– Iran’s currency reportedly hit an all-time low amid mounting economic strain from blockades, attacks on industry and mass job losses.
Regional conflict and humanitarian toll
– Fighting in Lebanon and along Israel’s northern border with Hezbollah continued. Lebanese authorities reported more than 2,500 killed and over 8,000 wounded from intensified Israeli operations since hostilities escalated. More than a million people have been displaced in Lebanon.
– Israel intercepted a pro-Palestinian flotilla near Crete, detaining roughly 175 activists from several vessels; both sides issued sharply divergent statements about the incident.
– Israel warned residents in additional southern Lebanese villages to evacuate as it planned strikes against Hezbollah targets. Hezbollah said it had hit Israeli armor in response to claimed ceasefire violations.
Allies, rivals and international responses
– Britain’s prime minister accused Iran of seeking to harm British Jews in the wake of attacks on Jewish communities in London; other Western leaders criticized Tehran’s actions and rhetoric.
– Multiple U.S. officials and NATO-aligned lawmakers said Russia has provided intelligence support to Iran and helped supply drones, a charge noted at hearings but not detailed publicly.
– The U.N. secretary-general warned that if the conflict and maritime chokehold persist, the world risks a global recession and escalating humanitarian crises—projecting millions more pushed into poverty and extreme hunger under protracted disruption scenarios.
Other notable developments
– The United Arab Emirates barred citizens from travel to Iran, Lebanon and Iraq amid regional volatility and urged nationals to return home.
– FIFA President Gianni Infantino reiterated his expectation that Iran’s national team will participate in the World Cup in the U.S., emphasizing sport’s unifying role despite the conflict.
– President Trump continued public pressure on allies and critics, suggesting he may reduce U.S. troop levels in Germany while insisting Iran “wants to make a deal badly” and claiming the U.S. had “already won” much of the fight — while acknowledging more guarantees are needed regarding Iran’s nuclear material.
Outlook
The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, continuing maritime disruptions, and unresolved legal and political questions in Washington leave both markets and policymakers on edge. Oil prices and economic strains are likely to remain sensitive to any shifts in blockade enforcement, diplomatic breakthroughs, or renewed military action. Congress and the administration face a near-term reckoning over war powers, funding and strategy as the conflict’s human and economic costs mount.