Updated March 6, 2026 / 11:01 AM EST
Oil prices surged Friday as fears that the Iran war will interrupt global crude flows pushed benchmarks to near their highest levels since April 2024. West Texas Intermediate climbed 6.8% to $86.57 a barrel, while Brent rose 4.7% to $89.44.
Market participants pointed to major shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that typically handles about 20% of world oil shipments. The Joint Maritime Information Center said traffic has plunged from roughly 138 vessels per day to “single-digit levels” in recent days, effectively bottlenecking exports and deliveries.
Analysts say the market has moved beyond pricing abstract geopolitical risk to confronting real operational interruptions. JPMorgan strategists noted refiners and supply chains are beginning to feel the strain as shipments and processing are constrained. Oxford Economics reported WTI is roughly 30% higher since the war began and more than 55% above its January low.
Officials and industry voices warned of deeper supply cuts. Qatar’s energy minister suggested Gulf producers could halt output within days if conditions worsen, a scenario the Financial Times said might push Brent toward $150 a barrel. Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, warned Brent could top $100 a barrel as early as next week if tankers remain unable to transit the strait.
Higher crude quickly fed into U.S. pump prices. GasBuddy data show the national average price for regular gasoline rose about 32 cents over the past seven days to roughly $3.31 a gallon, the highest since August 2024; diesel jumped about 51 cents to $4.26, its highest level since November 2023. GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan said the effective shutdown of the strait makes further price increases likely in the near term.
This report was edited by Alain Sherter. The Associated Press contributed to the coverage.