Following a U.S. Supreme Court decision that struck down a Louisiana congressional map creating two Democratic-leaning, majority-Black districts, Republican officials in several Southern states moved this week to consider redrawing lines. Louisiana suspended its May 16 House primaries and urged lawmakers to redraw maps; governors in Alabama and Tennessee called special legislative sessions to explore redistricting options.
A CBS News analysis estimates that, in a best-case scenario for Republicans, multiple Southern states could redraw maps, survive court challenges and collectively add between one and nine GOP-leaning seats for the 2026 midterms. That total could increase ahead of 2028 if more states act. But timing presents major obstacles: many states have already held primaries, face soon-to-arrive primaries, or have passed candidate filing deadlines. Legal challenges are expected, and judges may block last-minute changes under the Purcell principle, which advises courts against changing election rules shortly before an election. National political conditions — including voter concerns about the economy and the war with Iran — could also make 2026 a tougher cycle for Republicans and prompt some to wait until 2028.
Louisiana (possible +1 to +2 Republican seats)
State officials immediately paused the congressional primary after the ruling; early voting had been scheduled and ballots were already printed. Secretary of State Nancy Landry certified an emergency and Gov. Jeff Landry issued an executive order urging the Legislature to pass new maps and schedule elections “as soon as practical.” The state attorney general said Louisiana might revert to an older map that featured a single Black-majority district and a GOP tilt in other districts. Depending on how aggressively lines are redrawn, Republicans could break up Black-majority areas and create one to two additional Republican-leaning seats. Louisiana is nearly one-third Black, and Democrats warn changes could affect representation at multiple levels.
Florida (possible +4 Republican seats)
A map pushed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and approved by the Legislature would shrink or eliminate Democratic-leaning districts around Tampa, Orlando and parts of the southeast coast, potentially yielding as many as four additional GOP-leaning seats. DeSantis advisers say the Supreme Court decision weakens racial constraints tied to Florida’s “Fair Districts” amendments. Democrats and voting-rights lawyers, including Marc Elias, have pledged legal challenges.
Tennessee (possible +1 Republican seat)
Sen. Marsha Blackburn and other Republicans urged the Legislature to reconvene to redraw the Memphis-based 9th District in a way that would dilute the Black voting population. Blackburn’s proposed map could, in theory, produce a 9–0 Republican delegation by converting the current Democratic seat. Gov. Bill Lee has called a special session; Tennessee’s congressional primaries are scheduled for Aug. 6, though qualifying deadlines for candidates have already closed, complicating any midcycle changes.
Mississippi (possible +1 Republican seat)
Gov. Tate Reeves signaled a redistricting session after the Louisiana ruling, though his initial focus was on state Supreme Court districts that have been challenged as diluting Black voters’ influence. Republicans could target Mississippi’s 2nd Congressional District — a majority-Black seat held by Democrat Bennie Thompson — to try to pick up an additional GOP-leaning seat. Mississippi already held its primaries in March, creating logistical and legal hurdles to changing ballots or scheduling new contests.
Alabama (possible +1 Republican seat)
Alabama is already engaged in litigation over its congressional maps following Allen v. Milligan (2023), which required the state to create a second Black-majority district. A court-drawn map remains in place. After the Louisiana ruling, Gov. Kay Ivey initially cited ongoing litigation as a reason not to call a special session, but later convened lawmakers to plan for special elections should maps change. Alabama currently has two districts where Black voters form the predominant electorate; a new interpretation of the law could permit a reversion to maps with fewer Black-majority seats.
Constraints and broader impacts
– Timing: Candidate filing deadlines and completed primaries limit how many states can alter maps before 2026. Last-minute changes risk judicial intervention under the Purcell principle.
– Legal challenges: Democratic lawyers and voting-rights groups are prepared to sue, arguing changes would violate federal law or state constitutions.
– Political climate: National issues and polling could make 2026 less favorable for Republicans, motivating some officials to delay aggressive redistricting until 2028.
– Down-ballot effects: Altering congressional maps could also reshape state legislative districts, school boards and local offices, potentially reducing Black representation across multiple bodies.
Observers say the ruling could affect dozens of districts nationwide, particularly those represented by members of the Congressional Black Caucus. While some Republican officials are pressing for quick action, voting-rights experts warn that legal and logistical hurdles will constrain how many map changes can be implemented in time for the 2026 elections.
Nikole Killion contributed to this report.