By Hunter Woodall
February 6, 2026
Republican efforts to redraw congressional maps between regular cycles — a tactic used in states like Texas, Missouri and North Carolina — were designed to flip Democratic seats and shore up the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterms. In Virginia, however, Democrats this week unveiled a partisan map that could produce the opposite result, potentially costing Republicans as many as four U.S. House seats if voters approve a related constitutional change.
The proposal would reshape several districts now held by Republicans, with Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st, Rep. Jen Kiggans in the 2nd, Rep. John McGuire in the 5th and Rep. Ben Cline in the 6th marked as targets. Under the new lines, the 1st and 5th districts are projected to become safely Democratic, while the 2nd and 6th would be more competitive than they are today. Virginia currently sends six Democrats and five Republicans to the House.
Democrats say the map is a corrective response to mid-decade maneuvers elsewhere and intend to place both a constitutional amendment and the new map before voters in a special April 21 election. That move would undo the bipartisan redistricting commission created by a 2020 ballot question, which passed with roughly 66% of the vote and assigned congressional mapmaking to a neutral panel. The Democratic strategy is to bypass that commission by seeking voter approval for a direct constitutional change.
Republicans sharply criticized the plan, arguing it rigs the system before any ballots are cast; Rep. Wittman, one of the lawmakers whose district would be reshaped, called it an extreme power grab. Legal challenges are already underway: in January a Virginia judge rejected the campaign’s effort to fast-track the amendment onto the ballot because of procedural shortcomings, and more litigation is expected as advocates press to meet this spring’s deadlines.
Virginia’s politics are competitive. The state has favored Democratic presidential nominees since 2004, yet former President Trump lost it by only about six points in 2024, making a statewide, party-line constitutional change far from certain at the ballot box.
The Virginia fight is part of a broader national escalation over mapmaking. Last year, Texas Republicans redrew maps to turn several Democratic seats into GOP pickup opportunities; similar changes have occurred in North Carolina and Missouri. Some responses and court rulings have pushed back: California’s governor won voter approval of a new map to blunt Republican gains, a court-ordered redraw in Utah is expected to help Democrats, Kansas Republicans failed to relocate a Democratic congresswoman’s seat, an Ohio bipartisan deal thwarted an extreme gerrymander, and Indiana Senate Republicans declined a proposal to overhaul two Democratic districts.
Other states may pursue similar strategies. In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore wants to flip the state’s last Republican-held seat but faces resistance from his own party leaders; in Florida, Republican governors and legislators are reportedly considering adjustments that could imperil remaining Democratic districts.
If several states carry out mid-decade changes, those shifts could be decisive in determining which party controls the U.S. House for the final two years of a second Trump administration. They could also produce prolonged court fights and political controversy in a period when long-standing redistricting norms are being tested.