Updated Feb. 5, 2026 — CBS News
The final U.S.-Russia agreement that limited deployed strategic nuclear weapons expired Thursday, ending the last major bilateral arms-control pact between the world’s two largest nuclear powers.
New START, signed in 2010, capped each country at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and established on-site inspections and notification procedures to verify compliance. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow suspended inspections and stopped providing notifications, though the State Department’s most recent assessment said Russia had not clearly breached the treaty limits.
President Joe Biden extended New START for five years in 2021; that extension has now ended and the treaty cannot be renewed further. Former President Donald Trump said in a January interview with The New York Times, “If it expires, it expires,” and indicated he would prefer any future deal to include China. The White House has said the president will lay out a plan for nuclear arms control on his own timetable and expressed a desire to preserve limits while bringing China into future negotiations.
Sen. Marco Rubio this week argued it is “impossible” to reach a meaningful agreement without China, pointing to Beijing’s rapidly expanding arsenal. The Pentagon has estimated that China’s stockpile could surpass 1,000 warheads by 2035, up sharply from roughly 200 in 2019. The Federation of American Scientists estimates the U.S. and Russia hold about 4,300 and 3,700 nuclear warheads, respectively.
In September, President Vladimir Putin suggested both sides could observe New START constraints informally for a year without a new treaty. Rose Gottemoeller, former U.S. under secretary of state for arms control, told senators that such an informal arrangement is feasible and would allow the two countries to reestablish strategic stability and address nuclear limits at the negotiating table. She urged that the next U.S. president act as “the president of nuclear peace” during this interim.
Not all former officials agreed on the treaty’s value. Retired Adm. Charles Richard, former commander of U.S. Strategic Command, and Tim Morrison, a former deputy assistant to the president for national security affairs, said New START left key issues unaddressed — it excluded China and did not cover nonstrategic or tactical weapons — and therefore failed to resolve pressing challenges. Gottemoeller countered that even an imperfect treaty was better than no limits at all.
Officials warned of multiple risks from the treaty’s lapse. Gottemoeller said it would be dangerous to try to confront China’s nuclear buildup while also coping with a rapid Russian increase in deployed weapons. Others raised proliferation concerns, suggesting the absence of formal limits could motivate other countries to pursue or expand nuclear programs.
Morrison highlighted another vulnerability: the aging U.S. stockpile. He told senators that by 2035 many U.S. warheads and bombs will have exceeded their design lives by roughly 30 years on average, reinforcing the need for sustained modernization and a robust defense industrial base.
All of the former officials urged strengthening the industrial base to support the nuclear triad, with particular emphasis on the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine program. Twelve Columbia-class submarines are planned to replace aging Ohio-class boats and maintain the sea-based leg of the triad. Richard said current planned force levels are inadequate, especially for bombers and ballistic missile submarines, and recommended considering increased capacity alongside recapitalization.
Sara Cook contributed to this report.