Trump Says Prices Falling; Data Tell a Mixed Story

President Trump told viewers in a televised address that his administration is “crushing” inflation and that “prices are coming down tremendously.” A look at recently released data and expert commentary shows a more mixed reality, with some costs easing and others still elevated.

Overall inflation trends

- Consumer prices have generally risen during Mr. Trump’s first year back in the White House. The most recent official CPI figure available (September) showed inflation at about a 3% annual rate. Newer federal CPI releases were delayed by a recent government shutdown.

- Inflation dipped to 2.3% in April 2025 but climbed steadily afterward and, by September, was back near the same rate recorded in January when Mr. Trump took office.

- Some Wall Street analysts, including Mark Vickery of Zacks Investment Research, estimated the CPI rose at roughly a 3.3% annual rate in November.

Tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s view

- Economists and Federal Reserve officials have pointed to the administration’s new import tariffs as a factor in the recent uptick in goods inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said tariffs have pushed goods prices higher and suggested that this boost could be a one-time effect that fades over the coming year.

- The Fed and many forecasters expect any tariff-related price pressure to be temporary and project headline inflation to ease in 2026; the Fed’s outlook puts inflation near about 2.4% next year, down from roughly 2.9% in 2025.

Longer-term context and consumer experience

- Inflation has come down substantially from a near-40-year high of about 9% in June 2022. But a lower inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly—not that prices are falling.

- Many people judge affordability by what they pay out of pocket. By that measure, Americans generally are still paying more for everyday basics than a year ago and considerably more than before the pandemic.

Food

- Grocery prices were about 2.7% higher in September year over year. Using CPI-based comparisons, grocery bills have risen roughly 49% since 2020.

- Some food items have climbed much faster than the overall grocery pace; for example, beef steaks recently rose nearly 17% from the prior year in CPI data.

- The administration has sought to blunt some grocery price pressures by exempting items such as beef, coffee and bananas from certain new country-specific tariffs.

Housing

- Housing costs remain a serious affordability issue. Bankrate reported that more than 75% of U.S. homes are unaffordable for the typical household.

- A prospective buyer now needs about $131,400 in annual income to afford a typical U.S. home, nearly double the roughly $65,000 figure from five years earlier, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta data.

- Public surveys indicate most Americans view housing as less affordable now than in prior years.

Energy and utilities

- Gasoline is one area where many consumers have seen relief: gas was down about 0.5% in September year over year, and average pump prices dipped below $3 per gallon earlier in the month in some reports. Lower crude oil costs, stronger refinery output and weaker seasonal demand helped push pump prices down.

- Other energy costs rose: residential electricity prices increased more than 10% over the first eight months of 2025, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, and power costs were up roughly 6% over the trailing 12 months.

- Utility payment problems have increased: by June 2025 nearly one in 20 households was seriously behind on utility bills, and average overdue balances rose from $597 to $789 over three years, a 32% increase, per research from The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers.

Politics and statements

- Mr. Trump made the remarks in Mount Pocono, Pa., while promoting his administration’s economic agenda ahead of next year’s midterms. He said, "I have no higher priority than making America affordable."

- White House spokesman Kush Desai credited the administration with rapidly cooling inflation to a "2.5% annualized rate," and said supply-side policies will keep inflation falling and real wages rising.

- Not all Republicans share the same emphasis on whether affordability is fully solved: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene told CBS News she does not view affordability as a "hoax," saying "everyone's bills have either stayed the same or gone up."

What to expect

- Some indicators, such as lower gasoline prices, have provided consumer relief. But groceries, housing and many utility costs remain elevated compared with recent years.

- Fed officials and many economists expect tariff-driven price effects to be temporary and for headline inflation to drop in 2026. Still, near-term data through late 2025 suggest inflation has not uniformly "come down tremendously" for all household expenses.